Suspect Suggestion Thread

[Deleted User]

252 Atk Tough Claws Metagross Zen Headbutt vs. 252 HP / 212+ Def Rotom-W: 135-159 (44.4 - 52.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

252 Atk Tough Claws Metagross Zen Headbutt vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Quagsire: 151-178 (38.3 - 45.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

-1 252 Atk Metagross Earthquake vs. 88 HP / 4 Def Mega Gyarados: 73-87 (20.6 - 24.6%) -- guaranteed 5HKO

+1 192+ Atk Mold Breaker Mega Gyarados Crunch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Metagross: 332-392 (110.2 - 130.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Throw in Will-O-Wisp, and Mega Metagross can't hope to touch Rotom-W a very common pokemon as is. I'm sure there are more pokemon that can wall it.

Quagsire isn't common but it works.

Mega Gyarados isn't too prominent but it's still OU and also completely manages Mega Metagross

[Reignited'Light]

You would usually have to sack something on your team to even bring Rotom-Wash in safely. Unless you're praying to the RNG gods that Zen Headbutt misses or get the low damage roll or something.Which is a pretty bad trade off imo.

Quagsire and Mega Gyara die to Grass Knot and Hammer Arm respectively.
Quagsire can not hope to stall out Metagross for long, and Gyara has no reliable recovery to heal off the damage that Mega Metagross has done.

252 Atk Tough Claws Mega Metagross Hammer Arm vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Gyarados: 292-344 (88.2 - 103.9%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
0 SpA Tough Claws Mega Metagross Grass Knot (80 BP) vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Quagsire: 452-532 (114.7 - 135%) -- guaranteed OHKO

So you still have to be careful to take out Metagross. It's not so easy to stop with that ridiculous Tough Claws ability.

While most people do not run Hammer Arm, it is a entirely possible move for Metagross to utilize effectively.
Mega Metagross is so unpredictable. The four moveslot syndrome can help make sure you have some sort of check to it, but only a few pokemon can accomplish that.

[Deleted User]

Rotom can also Pain Split and then get a chunk of it's health back. Gyarados doesn't have to Mega evolve right away. In which case it resist Hammer Arm. Hammer Arm, as you said, isn't common either. Grass Knot would get Quagsire. I don't think Mega Metagross is nearly as big of an issue as Greninja. One big difference is It -can- get priority, but while reaching that first important speed tier of 350 (110 Base), it's not terribly common, another being there isn't the same Life Orb recoil.

I personally have never had any issues managing Mega Metagross. There are plenty of checks and there are a few good counters IMO.

Ice Punch is pretty much Mandatory for the rampant Ground Flying types and just general coverage. Earthquake is usually necessary for Heatran or Excadrill. Zen Headbutt and Meteor Mash are just given.

There are other moves it can use, but you should be able to get a general feeling for it's moveset based on what else is on the team. It's far from Greninja level unpredictable.

Oh and Metagross would be -1 against the Gyarados in that calc. Meaning it can't OHKO even if it doesn't Mega and DDance. You also assumed no bulk investment, while it may be common, it's not like it's the only spread used.

[Reignited'Light]

It still doesn't change the fact that you would have to sack something to bring in Rotom-Wash. Unless you're predicting the Meteor Mash or something.
And Metagross can opt for Thunderpunch as well if Skarmory/Slowbro/BulkyWater are a pain. Of course, no one really runs Thunderpunch on Metagross. It just depends on who you are pairing Metagross with when you are teambuilding. Having so much coverage at its disposal is scary.
Greninja will always be a bigger problem since it has so much speed and gets STAB every time it uses a move. Nothing switches into Greninja safely. The same can be said for Mega Metagross. You would pretty much have to scout the entire set of Metagross before bringing in the true "check or counter". I don't find that healthy for the OU metagame.

While Mega Metagross being banned or not is debatable, it still definitely deserves a suspect.

[NickCrash]

Please take this seriously and look up things in more detail before you write a comment that doesn't make any sense. You need to be about it before you can say you are about it. I would want to see thoughtful output be brought into these threads. Thank you.

You didn't understand the point and somehow it's my fault, because I have a different opinion to yours.

In that case, let me answer to each point, so I make myself clear.

Here's the issue we take with that.

Combo is known as core. Cores in the most basic style of OU matches are known as something to fill a purpose in a team like what used to be SkarmBliss or Gyaravire. They are cores to fill a purpose of either defensive or offensive capabilities.

Two. Dragons are still hella common. A few dragons have fallen in favor for others such as Hydreigon and Haxorus, but those dragons were already unpopular to begin with. Dragons have found a nice middle ground and are still common then you think.

As the first is concerned, the cores are mainly teams of two pokemon that are used, and have certain goal in the team, as Skarm&Blis or Ferro&Jelly and so on. Usually you come across defensive cores, as the offensive side is later created. As I stated before, you don't just take 6 individually strong pokemon and call it a team.

About the second, dragons have come to their checks this generation. You used to see teams with 3 or more dragons. Now 2 is the max you'll see, and that is rare. The reason they were overused were their generally high stats. That is why you'll still see their usage. What is now in control is the spam of outrage, with or without fairies.

They are no more the solution to everything, not only because of the intro of fairies, but also the great range of different pokemon, along with megas introduced in this generation.

Despite the other greninja sets becoming less popular, that's the whole point of a sub-set. It's a set you do not expect at all. You need to learn the concept of lure sets. Lure sets are sets that are typically not found on normal low ranked styles of play. But in tournaments and high ranked styles of play, it is common. They can consist of a pokemon that doesn't run the usual set it runs just to foil and potentially "lure" a pokemon into the wrong move. Popular examples include Magma Storm Heatran and Taunt/WoW Talonflame.

The concept of having certain moves in order to lure your potential checks in is quite old and most often seen in HO teams. While Wow is less common on a Talonflame, Magma Storm is often seen to replace Lava plume in Heatran. Other examples include Superpower Scizor, Dazzling Gleam Gengar and IceFang Gliscor. An agility Metagross carrying Hammer arm is also a lure set, targeted at other steel types, and especially the now rampant Magnezone with Hp-fire.

Greninja could also be carrying something you'd call a lure set. Given how frail it is, as already stated, it can serve as an one-use surprize which might be helpful or not, as it depends on the EV spread in the end. The reason Gren is suspected now is his two new moves, Gunk Shot and Low Kick, both physical. This mainly means viability as a physical attacker or having 1 physical move and 3 special, to serve as the problem solver who provides coverage. (already adressed in the previous post).

You need to take these considerations seriously and actually give us a legitimate reason to actually have use believe that nickcrash because I have every right to say what I just said because

A.) I have been in the low and high skills of play for OU and I have won a few minor tournaments.

B.) I have played with smogon rules for awhile now, so I know exactly how the metagame works and all the terms for it

C.) I have participated in a real suspect test, so I know exactly what to consider in each pokemon in terms of brokeness.

D.) I take this seriously because this is something that is important to get right. Nobody likes to play a broken tier.

You posted info about cores, the usage of dragons and the possibility of greninja running a lure set, yet failed to explain where you disagree with what I posted.

You merely assumed that the others don't know about the metagame. Let me answer to that.

A) I have playing in OU, mainly in Smogon, since generation 5 came out. At some point I became good enough to win several tournaments. It used to be mainly individuals hosting tournaments on challonge, yet since gen6 they host them in the main showdown server. I've been in those and won some, some with few and some with more people.

My experience is mainly with smogon rules.

C) I am currently participating in this suspect test on showdown. I reached the 2700+ COIL mark and am eligible for voting. Previously I was eligible to vote for/against the banning of M-Lucario, Genesect and Deoxys-S, about a year ago.

D) I'll have to agree with you on this one. Nobody likes to play a broken tier.

[SJMistery]

to the one who said it. since when empoleon is sub-par? scald, defog+stealth rocks support, nice sdef, unyque typing... he is a nice wall. since XY he has been my main defogger, and he has never deceived me.

also, if we copy the smogon tiers, which is even the point for players to use our server and not go into the main one? it was better when whe had our own tiers...

Edited January 5, 2015 by SJMistery

[Kamina]

Greninja should be suspected because it's only pure counter in OU is Chancy. This makes it especially hard for bulky offensive teams to beat it since they either have to predict one hundred percent against it or sack pokes while trying to figure out what set it is. This makes the game more luck based and less skill based and why I believe that it should at least be suspected from our competitive OU tier. Other pokemon can also run gimmick sets but what separates them from greninja is that even with the gimmicks they still have plenty of counters.

Metagross preforms the same way that greninja does in that it can run many diverse moves and only has few "pure counters". I also think it should be suspected maybe after the ruling on greninja is finished.

to the one who said it. since when empoleon is sub-par? scald, defog+stealth rocks support, nice sdef, unyque typing... he is a nice wall. since XY he has been my main defogger, and he has never deceived me.

also, if we copy the smogon tiers, which is even the point for players to use our server and not go into the main one? it was better when whe had our own tiers...

Low kick variants, which are starting to be common, can easily beat empoleon. As for your second statement, Reborn is a community and that is what keeps the people here together. We are not outright copying smogon and it is not our fault if smogon also decides to ban the same thing that others here have felt was a problem.

Greninja shouldn't be banned. I've been playing in showdown these days that Gren left, and I see several combos rise, which Greninja usually checks. The most evident one is M-Metagross/Heatran combination. More people tend to use these now.

How does metagross / heatran check greninja? If the greninja is running hydropump/lowkick and dark pulse (which is both common and viable) than that "combo" falls apart.

Yes, I'm talking about a combo opposed to a single pokemon. As Greninja is glue to fill the holes of teams, it's there, like many others, to disrupt the combos between enemy members. Just like Rotom-W stops a combo of Landorus/Keldeo, as it checks and shuts off both, Greninja was feared, so the combo Heatran/Metagross wasn't applied much. Metagame is all about combos. That's why you don't just take 6 individually strong pokemon and call it a team.

When speaking of suspect test, you should take all sides into consideration. Let's see what Greninja really does.

It can be three things offensively:

a) A full special sweeper, with or without u-turn, usually carrying a choice specs or scarf

A physical attacker

c) A mixed grill

Choices b and c are not quite frequent, as Greninja is outclassed by other physical attackers and may serve just for a suprise attack. This can work only if applied mid-game, which is nearly impossible, since he'll have to appear when things get tough. He's there to get you out of the tight place, remember? Mixed doesn't work EV-wise, because it limits Greninja's destructive power.

So let's go to the usual and most frightening set that causes this suspect test; the special

Common set: Hydro Pump/Scald, Ice beam, Dark Pulse, Extrasensory/Spikes/U-turn

What does it do:
Mainly hit hard faster than the opponent. That means, it leaves no loose ends. If it can, it will kill you. If you change and your switch is not bulky enough to hit faster next turn, or take the hit, you'll have to end up dead and wait for your revenge killer. Awesome in the offensive.

But wait there's more!
That kind of thoughtless play actually proves to hinder teams outside of the field. When creating them in competitive play, people think of possible threats first. Some like to build around a certain pokemon, so to cover those threats, they would stop for a second and decide not to include some mon, that otherwise would make the spot, or put others, specially as a counter (which is an argument for suspect). Some others like to play around the members they choose in order to find out what suits their playstyle and to bring balance.

That said, Greninja limits the HO style some might choose, because it can be brought out to dish damage to pokemon relying solely on their speed, or worse attack or special attack. Most evident: it limits HO synergies (eg Latios&Volcarona&Landorus&&&...)

How can I NOT speak of combos?

Take a look at what used to happen a lot in Gen5. Dragons. Teams with 3 or more dragons that dominated the game. Even so, both teams had to make combos. The opposing team knew that the (then) almighty Garchomp or Hydreigon could sweep and prepared accordingly. Bronzong and Heatrans with balloons were more common than a mega is now (just saying), not to mention the necessity of bringing a Mamoswine to stop with priority ice shard, sometimes also banded. Now we have the same situation, just more balanced.

In the suspect test, most teams either have something to substitute Greninja, like Latios, or even Tornadus-t, or turn in general towards offense, seldom bulky.

About CroBro, I do know it's a thing and I've faced it a couple of times. It still didn't pose much threat. Taunt it, trick it, stick a water resistant pokemon against it, like Rotom-W or M-Venusaur, I still think it's not that great.

I know you stated that you have won many tours but you fail to notice why greninja was becoming such a big problem in the first place. It got access to gunk shot and low kick. You stated that the mix set makes greninja not as destructive but really all the attack eves that greninja need to assure critical one hit kos and two hit kos on switchs is fourty. That means its special attack is only ten points lower than it normally would be if it was just an all out special attacker which is not much of a difference. I don't think crobro is much of a problem either but it can't be tricked.

[Shamitako]

Greninja should be suspected because it's only pure counter in OU is Chancy. This makes it especially hard for bulky offensive teams to beat it since they either have to predict one hundred percent against it or sack pokes while trying to figure out what set it is. This makes the game more luck based and less skill based and why I believe that it should at least be suspected from our competitive OU tier. Other pokemon can also run gimmick sets but what separates them from greninja is that even with the gimmicks they still have plenty of counters.

Okay, so this is a bit of a pet peeve of mine

FYI, trying to figure out what set it is does not make it "luck based." Luck would require it to be random, beyond either player's control, and capable of going in either player's direction depending on what was rolled. Just because it's unpredictable doesn't make it any less a contest of skill. Your lack of knowledge of its moveset doesn't make your failure to predict its movements bad luck, it simply makes it unpredictable. It was within your control to have picked a better move. I still stipulate that there isn't any issue when there is actual luck involved in the game, however, unpredictability is an issue

And thus I have a segway

Unpredictability by definition literally means that something can't be predicted, in case that wasn't obvious. Prediction is a very important part of the meta and, alongside team composition and RNGesus, is one of the biggest factors in determining who wins or loses a match. To be truly unpredictable is to be above this factor. Essentially, by being so unpredictable, Greninja automatically moves the game to the player using its advantage. You can never prepare for all possible moves it could be carrying, and thus your opponent has to make a mistake to allow you to properly remove it. Or, it just has to not be carrying whatever move

The thing is, while Greninja doesn't appear to have many weaknesses, like so many other things it still suffers majorly from Four Moveslot Syndrome, Sure it could be carrying Grass Knot, thus allowing it to completely screw over your Rotom-W (oh, actually, just did calcs, NVM that), but what are the chances it actually is? It's practically required to have Hydro Pump/Surf, and not having Ice Beam takes out a lot of your coverage, so that's two moves that are essentially guaranteed. Sure you can not run one of those, thus giving you an advantage of unpredictability, but to do so you sacrifice a lot. The movesets that do the most damage are the most predictable, and the ones that are the least predictable, will do the least damage once they're revealed. There's no reason you shouldn't predict it's going to Ice Beam your Landorus and go ahead and switch to that Rotom-W. To not do so is overthinking the situation, and if you're overhtinking by that much, you're going to lose anyway

To emphasize the moveslot syndrome, Alakazam can run moves that let it kill most of it's counters, but it's still laying down in UU. It doesn't have quite as good defenses as Greninja IIRC, but it's still worth noting that you can calc just about anything to make something look invincible, but it will still be limited. However, there is one major factor that puts Greninja above all others in unpredictability

(This next bit is a bit ranty and repetitive, there's a TL;DR down below if you need it)

The main issue Greninja has in unpredictability, and the thing that makes me think it is truly unpredictable, and thus above 1/3rd of the meta. It can run physical and mixed sets, and it can run them well. While the special set in and of itself will always be limited and you can generally assume it has such and such moves, until you've seen the team around it, you can't guess whether Greninja will be physical or special, let alone which moves it has. Of course if you're actually good you can do that once you've seen the team, thus removing the unpredictability, but I digress.

Greninja has several factors that make it completely above predictability. Unless one is skilled enough to solve its moveset based on the team it's built around, it's going to get at least one kill, probably more. But therein lies the question, if this is really about skill, and a skilled player can predict the "unpredictable" Greninja, why should that be a factor to whether or not its considered overpowered? Banning something just because you personally can't figure out how to beat it isn't competitive at all. I still can't figure out how to beat Talonflame half the time, and that's not even that good (At least compared to Greninja)

That's long winded and probably doesn't make any sense with all my apparent back and forth on where I stand, so here's a TL;DR for all that:

Greninja is insanely versatile, and completely unpredictable to many. It requires legitimate skill to best. But it's also relatively easy to best for those who possess enough skill.

To finish, one more question: Where do we draw the line? When is there too much skill necessary to beat something? We talk a lot of how we want this game to be skill based, but if we remove things we consider to hard to beat just because we aren't skilled enough to do so, even though with enough skill it is technically possible. Are we being competitive, or just wanting to win more? Because believe it or not, those are far from the same thing. But then back again, when is there too much skill required? (Whoops, that was more than one ) I remain uncertain of where Greninja belongs, and thus, these are my reasons as to why it should be suspected

[Deleted User]

It's practically required to have Hydro Pump/Surf, and not having Ice Beam takes out a lot of your coverage, so that's two moves that are essentially guaranteed. Sure you can not run one of those, thus giving you an advantage of unpredictability, but to do so you sacrifice a lot. The movesets that do the most damage are the most predictable, and the ones that are the least predictable, will do the least damage once they're revealed. There's no reason you shouldn't predict it's going to Ice Beam your Landorus and go ahead and switch to that Rotom-W. To not do so is overthinking the situation, and if you're overhtinking by that much, you're going to lose anyway

It is NOT required to have Hydro Pump or Surf, I run one without it myself, it really doesn't need it at all. On a team where I already have a Rotom-W I'm running Gunk Shot, U-Turn, Ice Beam, and Dark Pulse. There isn't really any rule of thumb for moves Greninja must carry, best way to anticipate what it has is to look at the rest of the team and predict what would be missing in coverage. Ice Beam is really required either, but due to the fact that those moves are so common, it'll scare out MANY opponents regardless of whether it has those moves or not.

[NickCrash]

How does metagross / heatran check greninja? If the greninja is running hydropump/lowkick and dark pulse (which is both common and viable) than that "combo" falls apart.

I know you stated that you have won many tours but you fail to notice why greninja was becoming such a big problem in the first place. It got access to gunk shot and low kick. You stated that the mix set makes greninja not as destructive but really all the attack eves that greninja need to assure critical one hit kos and two hit kos on switchs is fourty. That means its special attack is only ten points lower than it normally would be if it was just an all out special attacker which is not much of a difference. I don't think crobro is much of a problem either but it can't be tricked.

Sorry for not being clear there. What I meant was that Greninja is the one who stops/checks this powerful combo and can ruin both pokemon. During the suspect test, it became more popular and with less things to actively stop it in its tracks, more threatening. (do I really have to use the term "core" instead of "combo"? I always thought of cores as more defensive than offensive)

By all means I didn't want to seem arrogant or anything. Due to my being offended, and responding right after I read it, I might have become offensive myself. I have some experience in dealing with Greninja, of course my methods are not the best, but I am confident in myself.

Also, yes, my fault for mentioning trick.

You do have a point that offensive teams would have problems dealing with it. The same teams usually do not have priority moves or t-wave and other forms of removing Gren's basic trait: speed.

It does hurt to remove it from play. The way I usually did it, was to lure it out with a pokemon X4 weak to Ice (eg Dragonite which is certain to die even in full hp), switch to a M-Scizor and take it out with Bullet Punch. Other methods include t-waving it, or if it has <70% health, to Extremespeed it with Dragonite. In another team, I have a Conkeldur to kill it with priority mach punch, and a spdef invested Gyarados to take whatever Gren wants to throw at him. Your point stands though. From those pokemon mentioned, only Scizor and Gyara can stop the attacks, and that's because it takes neutral damage and is specially defensive.

Gyarados can withstand them (with 52Atk EVs it's 5HKO if I mega evolve) because low kick works mainly with weight to get base power, and that's why I didn't think this move wasn't too big of a deal.

It is not only Chansey, it is just that Chansey is in general a wall against special moves, sometimes even physical ones, and can stall for days.

yet another long post, pull yourself together man

[Jelly]

(do I really have to use the term "core" instead of "combo"? I always thought of cores as more defensive than offensive)

just educating not really adding to the discussion much BUT i digress. offensive cores break down each other's checks while defensive cores wall each other's checks :]

[Sonikku]

Skarmory is a great wall to Metagross. It is quite common. But I can see how not every team is going to run it. That is why Magnezone works great with Metagross. It can help remove Skarmory and Slowbro.The only move it really has for Skarmory is Thunderpunch-

252 Atk Tough Claws Metagross Thunder Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 136-160 (40.7 - 47.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

+2 252 Atk Tough Claws Metagross Thunder Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 270-318 (80.8 - 95.2%) --

guaranteed 2HKO

Give Skarmy a Rocky Helmet, and you're on your way.

Another wall for Metagross is Mega Aggron.

252 Atk Tough Claws Metagross Hammer Arm vs. 252 HP / 136+ Def Filter Mega Aggron: 96-114 (27.9 - 33.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

Ferrothorn can hold its own too.

[NickCrash]

Doesn't normal Slowbro also wall M-Metagross? It doesn't have to be a mega

Edited January 9, 2015 by nickcrash

[Chevaleresse]

Some defensive calcs on Metagross.

0 SpA Rotom-W Hydro Pump vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Metagross: 135-160 (44.7 - 52.9%) -- 26.6% chance to 2HKO

0 SpA Rotom-W Thunderbolt vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Metagross: 111-132 (36.7 - 43.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Offensive EVs make little difference.

252 SpA Life Orb Greninja Dark Pulse vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Metagross: 315-374 (104.3 - 123.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252+ SpA Choice Specs Magnezone Thunderbolt vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Metagross: 264-312 (87.4 - 103.3%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO

Metagross fails to OHKO with Hammer Arm. EQ nets it.

252+ Atk Choice Band Talonflame Flare Blitz vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Metagross: 332-392 (109.9 - 129.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 Atk Talonflame Flare Blitz vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Metagross: 204-240 (67.5 - 79.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Thunderpunch kills Talonflame, though.

[Deleted User]

252+ Atk Life Orb Talonflame Flare Blitz vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Metagross: 289-343 (96 - 113.9%) -- 75% chance to OHKO

This set with 252 in attack and speed gives Talonflame 351 speed, just enough to outspeed Metagross, if you count the 6% health loss from potential stealth rocks, it becomes a guaranteed OHKO.

[Void]

Okay, so this is a bit of a pet peeve of mine

FYI, trying to figure out what set it is does not make it "luck based." Luck would require it to be random, beyond either player's control, and capable of going in either player's direction depending on what was rolled. Just because it's unpredictable doesn't make it any less a contest of skill. Your lack of knowledge of its moveset doesn't make your failure to predict its movements bad luck, it simply makes it unpredictable. It was within your control to have picked a better move. I still stipulate that there isn't any issue when there is actual luck involved in the game, however, unpredictability is an issue

It is luck from the player who is playing against greninja's point of view. Your opponent's moveset is beyond your control, in the end you're pretty much guessing what moves it runs. You can't say it was within the player's control to pick a better move when there was no way for he or she to know what that better move was.

A lot of people seem to be unable to distinguish between skillful plays and guessing/coinflip predictions tbh.

Edited January 9, 2015 by Void

[Shamitako]

Still not luck :/ luck requires it to be out of both player's control, so that it can go either way. The unpredictability aspect of Greninja makes it "impossible" for the player who doesn't have it to predict, thus placing the player with Greninja at an immediate advantage due to having greater knowledge. Disproportionate knowledge =/= luck. You said guessing/coinflip, but those are two different things. A guess can be based in what little knowledge you do have, a coinflip is beyond anyone's control. Just because you guessed wrong doesn't mean you were unlucky. And I do suppose that wording makes it sound like I'm saying you could have known better and made a better move, my apologies for that, because it isn't what I mean. You couldn't have known better, but you could have picked a better move. Thus, again, it's a difference in knowledge placing one player at an advantage, not a roll of the dice

Whether the Greninja player is at too big of an advantage or not does not change the fact that it still isn't luck. You weren't lucky if you picked the right move--unless you literally just clicked a random move, but then that's you making it about luck, not Greninja--you simply made the best guess you could based on the information given and managed to overcome your disadvantage in knowledge. And it's the same if you make the wrong choice, except you don't overcome your disadvantage

[Void]

You could have picked a better move if you guessed right, that is pretty much luck. Just because it isn't random doesn't mean it isn't luck. It's luck from the greninja user's point of view too tbh, whether his/her opponent guesses the right coverage move or not.

I mean, if you have no knowledge, what else is there to base your decision on? You just have to hope the move you picked is the right one, that has nothing to do with skill really.

I wasn't using guessing/coinflip interchangeably btw, looks like that's how you took it. By coinflip predictions I meant 50/50s.

[slant]

Skimming most of these posts so sorry if I am repeating someone else. But my $.02 about Metagross:

Can we suspect it? Sure. But I don't think it deserves to be banned down the line. Speaking as a player who has always gravitated towards the bulky offense/stall side of the playing style spectrum, Metagross joins a legion of other slightly bulky pokemon that can 1hko-2hko the entire metagame such as Pinsir, Gallade, Charizard, Keldeo, etc. etc. etc. The Gen 6 power creep is insane; I miss the Gen V days when a well played stall team could 6-0 the opponent with no single member below 90%. Now, just bringing out one of these guys vs. a defensive player means that something is gonna get chunked badly. So yeah as a defensive player I don't really understand what Metagross does that is ban-worthy. It hurts, yes, but no more than a ton of other threats. Against Metagross in particular, switching in Rotom-W is a pretty safe choice since most players tend to spam meteor mash instead of zen headbutt. Even zen headbutt does ~40% so even if the other guy predicts Rotom-W coming in it is not the end of the world.

And about this....

Still not luck :/ luck requires it to be out of both player's control, so that it can go either way. The unpredictability aspect of Greninja makes it "impossible" for the player who doesn't have it to predict, thus placing the player with Greninja at an immediate advantage due to having greater knowledge. Disproportionate knowledge =/= luck.

Regardless of whether you call it luck or not, the fact remains that it's (almost) impossible to prepare ahead of time for Greninja's moveset.

[Shamitako]

I did say you couldn't prepare for it because of unpredictability. And again, if it's just luck then there's nothing wrong with it because it could go either way and neither player is really at a disadvantage. However if it isn't luck and actually is Greninja being above part of the metagame like I've been saying, then there's a major issue that needs addressed

Also, an educated guess still requires skill to make. If you were truly just making a random guess, then you wouldn't even consider Greninja's possible movesets, but you're not, you're using what knowledge you're given to make the best choice you can based on the situation (I think I said that exact line already) The same thing happens all the time with any Pokemon that can have more than one set of coverage moves (EX: Charizard Y may or may not be running Focus Blast, so you make an educated guess that it is because that's fairly common and swap your Normal type out to a Ghost type. You weren't unlucky if you were wrong and it just used Fire Blast) Greninja simply takes this up a notch with it's absolutely massive viable movepool. If mispredicting Greninja is luck, so is mispredicting anything. Greninja is just a lot easier to mispredict than pretty much everything else

Edited January 9, 2015 by KosherKitten

[CURIE]

So Smogon said the testing would last until January 4, and the voting will take place "no more than a week after that". So will we finally get the verdict on this Sunday?

[Tacos]

This is for Reborn, if I'm correct, not Smogon. Reborn will have it's own tiers, regardless of what Smogon declares.

[NickCrash]

Even so, I believe we follow Smogon closely until our "find battle" button is fixed. Then we can run as many suspect tests as we like, preferably on pokemon banned to ubers (eg Aegislash, M-Lucario, Genesect, Deoxys-D, M-Salamence and so on). We don't have to run all those suspect tests, but a some of these examples should be mandatory, given we never banned Aegis in PO.

[Deleted User]

I don't know if we have control over the tiers until Smogon allows Amethyst to re register Reborn's Showdown server. Either way, that is correct Tacos.

I do have one more question. Do we have free reign to ban certain items for particular Mega's to different tiers? There is certainly quite a few pokemon that depending on the use of Mega Stone, are in completely different tiers.

[Jelly]

yes that's what is called a complex ban. it's why kangaskhan is allowed in nu after only the megastone being banned to ubers. same with gengar and lucario. :]