Deleted User Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 I'm not sure who I find more insufferable, Trumps supporters, or his biggest haters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mde2001 Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 I'd go with Trump supporters, given their regular violence towards protesters, and general idiocy while attending his events. Also, Trump himself has called the immoral when the said they would all still vote for him if he went and shot someone in public... How he sees this as a good thing, and not just them blindly following him no matter what kind of person he is I have no idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted April 26, 2016 Author Share Posted April 26, 2016 Did you guys miss the front-runners actually winning a primary? Prior to New York - Donald Trump had lost five straight contests to challenger Ted Cruz. Hillary Clinton had lost EIGHT of the last NINE to challenger Bernie Sanders. All of that however seems to have been ripped asunder today though, as the Donald and Hillary seem to be in command of the early numbers coming out of the Empire State. Why it matters: New York is a very large treasure trove of delegates, and if there's a state the front-runners really needed to regain their moment, New York was the kind of state. For Hillary, it essentially indicates that Bernie still has trouble gaining much enthusiasm from persons of color and may indicate that he had been overly aggressive coming out of his hot streak against the secretary of state. The implications are even bigger for Trump, who really needs to box Ted Cruz out of any delegates in the Empire State in order to stop Cruz's largely insider-baseball-driven tear of delegate swiping. New York is one of the final inflection points for the GOP race, because it essentially starts an April shower of extremely moderate Republican states that won't bode too well for Cruz - and will give Trump a much needed boost to the next rung of the primary - within spitting distance of the magic 1237 delegates needed to be the nominee. In this neck of the woods - his major adversary is actually straggler John Kasich, who fits the demographics of the area much better than Cruz, but as a result of being moderate threatens the padding of Trump's leads in the area. Not every northeastern state is New York - which means the home-field-advantage the Empire State offers will diminish and will leave Trump having to point to Kasich's poor footing in the race. Cruz will be playing whack-a-mole with whatever conservatives he can find in Yankeeland largely unopposed - but with a very bare cupboard to reach into. The Democratic race may be written off by a huge Clinton win in NY, but I have a hunch Sanders has a strong enough campaign, northeastern roots, and favorable remaining map to quickly put Hillary back on her heels. However, New York is a very huge Democratic state, so Sanders would really want to do well enough to challenge Clinton there. The battle will be to see how close Bernie made it, and if Ted and John can even swipe -any- delegates away from Trump. Donezo from NY in terms of who wins though. #TrumpClinton2k16 --- Upcoming Primaries: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island #NortheasternTuesday The remainder of April is looking to be a buzz-saw for challengers and a launchpad for presumptive front-runners. This is part of the primary calendar that will not have different sets of voters offsetting each other. All five states in this set can be found in the northeast corner of the country - home to Rockefeller Republicans and liberals as opposed to conservatives and regular rank-and-file elephants. This means that this corner of the country will be much more competitive on the Democratic side, with Bernie Sanders fighting to keep his campaign on life-support and make a statement to the army of super-delegates that are firmly in Hillary Clinton's pocket. Clinton by contrast is looking to mathematically eliminate Bernie from a first-ballot victory next Tuesday and focus her guns on a still undecided Republican Party...that increasingly is favoring it's own front-runner in Donald Trump, despite his high unfavorables nationwide. Trump successfully pulled the plug on conservatives'-last-hope Ted Cruz's first-ballot hopes in his home state of New York last week, giving the Texas senator a big, fat goose-egg in delegates. The caboose, 1-state-wonder John Kasich, was able to steal Manhattan away from the business mogul however, and could prove to be a thorn in Donald Trump's side due to being a cookie-cutter Northeastern Republican. However, the flavor of the campaign cycle has been "Outsider", which means the Donald is anticipating a five-state sweep going into May. Again, Ted Cruz has the worst hand - as he's already looking to next month for his next play. The question for him will be if stalling out for nearly a whole month is going to be allowable down the road. Grand Ole Primary: Rally The Base, Trump the Democrats: The moniker for Hillary Clinton has been set - 'Crooked Hillary'. That's the message Donald Trump has to the rest of a Republican Party that may not have enough gas left to oppose him. The Trump Train has been rolling in Pennsylvania as of late, where the most noise was a Mexican Stand-off between supporters and dissenters in Harrisburg. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has been schmoozing the GOP big-wigs in Washington by making direct appeals and nods toward November. Trump's goal is clear - and it's calling 'all-aboard'. States he needs: Pennsylvania - but really, he needs to get 100 or more delegates on the day to meet expectations - because next Tuesday looks REALLY 'Terrific' and could be 'Yuuge' for a Trump first-ballot win. PA has a very strange delegate system, and it's one where his opponents could cause some serious damage if Trump's campaign is not careful. The state has 71 GOP delegates for grabs - but a whopping 54 of them are unbound on the first ballot. This means that Pennsylvania could be a Trump state but ultimately could be stolen by a better ground game... on the first ballot where Trump needs those delegates the most. Cruz's campaign strength has been rustling delegates away from Trump for weeks with great success, while John Kasich has solid support in the area due to his liberal Republicanism and the amount of colleges and urban areas across the state. In this state, expect more excitement to possibly come from the DELEGATE elections than from the presidential primary itself! Extreme Candidate Makeover: GOP Edition: The Ted Cruz 'likability' dilemma has been put on ice for a very surprising time - allowing the Texan to run a no-apology conservative campaign even down to the traditional social aspects of the position, while denouncing his colleagues in Washington and running along with Trump on populism power. However, the Cruz camp is in for a very rough three weeks, and in order to have any chance of successes on the trail in that time frame, Ted is going to be working on fixing his image to the severely liberal surroundings he finds himself in. This shouldn't mean waffling on platform positions, but it will probably include a significant absence of the edge usually seen from a Cruz stump. He also will need to play insider-baseball, nicking delegates from two of the five states by both votes -and- shenanigans. Hitting the dartboard here a few times could give his campaign enough oxygen to surge into Indiana in early May. States he needs: Maryland and Pennsylvania hold the key for a modestly successful end of April. It's worth noting that Cruz actually winning a state probably isn't going to happen, and Ted knows it. With Pennsylvania, it's going to be about finding loyalists in the state to stack the delegate list along with finding voters to not only prop him up, but prop up said list as well. Due to wacky unbound delegate rules - success in tandem with opponent John Kasich could suck some wind out of Trump's sails. Maryland differs from New York in that Ted has organized a staff there and he has the ability to make appeals in the state - which could also hurt Trump. Kasich Country: Where the delegates love me and the voters don't matter. John Kasich's campaign has been extremely enigmatic and has drawn criticism from a stronger Ted Cruz in the past about being a spoiler looking to join Trump's cabinet or ticket by sticking around. Kasich denied that vehemently, and now he has an opportunity to capitalize on Cruz's late deflation and favorable map positioning. Now that New York is out of the way, Kasich can stake the claim that he's playing "on the home-field" for sure and be a general thorn to the Donald's side. In other words, he has a lane of opportunity. Kasich has been stumping in Pennsylvania for a while now, and just about everywhere Trump isn't looking - he could shadow and canvass in what sets up for a potential upset. That of course - surmounts a severe lack of momentum that he hasn't had since March. States he needs: Maryland, Connecticut, Pennsylvania Maryland is a unique state - and it will be composed of a lot of 'Washington Republican' types due to it's proximity to D.C. That bodes well for the Ohio Governor because it means he can pressure Trump state-wide, and hurt his delegate totals there, it's also likely the state Kasich has the most chance to win. Connecticut will be a major focus for the Kasich camp because it can hurt Trump's delegate haul here by almost half if the #NeverTrump movement coalesces behind him and holds Trump under 50 percent of the vote. Doing so means that it's no longer a winner-take-all contest and that all candidates with at least 20% of the vote will receive delegates. Pennsylvania will need to be a major tag-team effort between Cruz and Kasich in what will likely be a highway-robbery scenario, but it's entirely possible with the way PA has it set up. Bernie v. Hillary I don't have much faith in Sanders finding a lot of respite next week - He'll likely need to try and upset her in Pennsylvania for the best chance of getting back off the mat. --- The Unholy Alliance This news update features two things - Cruz essentially romping in delegate selection in Maine and Utah, Kentucky essentially being dominated by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell - and the most interesting piece of campaign news - a state-trading deal between John Kasich and Ted Cruz as they march on to stop Donald Trump from reaching 1,237 delegates. Ted Cruz's path to survival largely falls on May 3rd, when Indiana votes in it's primary. The Hoosier State is the first state out of a stretch in Yankeeland for the Texan where his conservative message may actually strike a few chords. Perhaps to his benefit, the call for strategic voting has been issued - as John Kasich will not seriously contend in Indiana and instead will focus on later states - particularly Oregon and New Mexico, western bastions of liberalism in which the moderate Republican has a bigger lane to operate in - and particularly states Ted Cruz is suddenly uninterested in spending resources on. Too long, didn't read? Ted Cruz and John Kasich are dividing the remaining map and focusing their resources in a manner that makes them tactical allies against Donald Trump. The only thing is - both candidates are trying to play it coy. Kasich told Indiana Republicans that they SHOULD vote for him, while Cruz had to expound on why nominating Trump is bad for the GOP as a whole without telling his ceded states' citizens to vote for Kasich instead. It's a complicated relationship on the surface... but one thing remains clear. It's no longer about Ted Cruz (and it hasn't been about Kasich since March) - it's now a simple question. To Trump? or Not to Trump? The timing seems to be a little bit too late. Trump's commentary about how the GOP nominating process is rigged and how Washington is against him and the people on the issue runs parallel to this kind of strategic voting call. The last time it was employed was actually in this same election cycle, when Marco Rubio called for Ohio Republicans to support their governor over himself - pushing Kasich to his -only- state victory. It worked largely because the call for separation was only leaked very close to voting day and there wasn't much Trump could say about it to shoot the deal down. We're still over a week away from Indiana - and with Donald being the only candidate with a mathematical possibility of winning the nomination on the first ballot the business definitely looks fishy. If Trump wins Indiana, he's very likely to win California and thus will be very close to a first ballot win. If he loses Indiana to Cruz the path gets a little harder for Trump and he would likely need some unbound delegates to look his way on the first ballot. Trump will not be able to win on the second ballot or later because of how poorly his campaign has fared in putting loyal delegates on the slate in seemingly almost-every state that has already voted. From the second ballot forward, it might even be safe to say that Senator Cruz is the front-runner, barring a lot of his delegates running from him as well. Therefore, Trump won't be the nominee if he can't win on the first ballot. Winning on the first ballot gives everyone a sense of unity - as Republican or Democratic voters coalesced around one candidate and those same voters would be ready to back the nominee in the fall. If the convention is contested and goes multiple ballots, it's very possible the delegates flip on anyone - even the top vote-getter - in order to determine a "majority" of delegates. Trump's using his populist message to decry these kinds of back-room deals where the voters are misrepresented - and that will ultimately fall over the Cruz-Kasich marriage as well. Such consequences could leave the party fractured and give the other major party a bigger advantage in the following general election. Who does the deal favor? Senator Cruz. Indiana is a winner-take-all state both in congressional districts and state-wide. New Mexico and Oregon by contrast, are proportional states. This means that if Cruz wins Indiana he will win the lion's share of it's 57 delegates while John Kasich would only pick up "most" of the 52 delegates if he were to win both states. Both of the western states also fall after Indiana, meaning that if Ted gets his win, he can essentially dictate if he -wants- to follow through with the deal based on polling in those states. If his campaign feels it would be safer to compete in those states, Kasich will likely get screwed over on the truce. Something that's worth noting is that aside from California and Arizona, Trumpism isn't really resonating out west. However, New Mexico is very similar to Texas and Arizona in that it's a border state and that immigration will be a very strong talking point, which means Kasich might be out of luck even -IF- Cruz lays off there - despite being a mixing pot of political identities. Oregon may be safe because the ...nearly year old polling data that's out there doesn't turn kindly for Trump in the slightest, but the data had two extreme conservatives making the most noise in the state - with Mike Huckabee being the victor at 21 percent of the vote followed by Cruz at 16 percent. Kasich himself isn't high on the totem poll in the poll at all - meaning last year, Oregon's Republican voters were fairly stark conservatives. This means Cruz might be able to steal that state if he wanted to despite making an accord with Kasich over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eviora Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Oh, look. Kasich and BigoTed are trying to undermine the primary voting process. So much for the will of the people. Politicians are prone to hypocrisy, but I don't think I've ever been so disgusted by one before. Trump has every reason to stay in the race even if he loses the nomination - to spite the party that ganged up on him, if nothing else. I think it's time to start seriously looking into moving to Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted April 26, 2016 Author Share Posted April 26, 2016 I've gained a lot of respect for Trump with regards to how he's run his campaign and some of his recent positions. Opposing HB2 and going on record of saying he would allow trans individuals to use their preferred restroom in Trump Tower. Opposing abortion EXCEPT in instances of rape, incest, or risk of mother's life - a much more electable position than totally abolishing abortion - even going so far to say he would encourage the GOP to reform it's stance on the issue. Trump has been at the very least faithful to the democratic process. He only talks about the first ballot not only because it's the only ballot he has a chance of winning on, but because to him, every vote matters. I will also say that - yeah - Kasich and Cruz are employing a desperate strategy because both of them know they can't win on the first ballot either, but I will admit that I'm skeptical of their alliance undermining the will of the people. This has to be determined by delegates because in both primaries the delegates already matter more than the votes do - especially in contested conventions. Let's assume by the end of tonight Trump sweeps all of the northeastern states voting and gains 100 delegates. That gives the Donald 945 delegates total. Ted Cruz and Kasich, if they were to get absolutely nothing for arguments sake (picking off votes from congressional district won't matter too much) would remain at 559 and 148 respectively. Marco Rubio still holds on to third place with 171 delegates as well. Adding the delegates of Trump's opponents give us a total of 878 delegates. Trump would have picked off more than 50 percent of the delegates that are already pledged to a candidate. If we're only talking about a majority of the party up to this point and not a majority of the party nationwide, Donald Trump should indeed be the nominee as he is indeed holding a majority of the delegates thus far. Unfortunately for Trump, it's not about gaining the largest plurality - it's about gaining 1,237 delegates, but what percentage of delegates is 1,237 from all possible delegates to gain? The Republican primary has a total of 2,472 delegates to obtain during the primary season - making that number "100%" of the available delegates. Dividing that by 2 would give us HALF of the delegates total. That number, is 1,23.....6. 1,236 is 50% of the Republican delegates nationwide. That means in order for anyone to have a "majority" one must gain 1,237 at the bare minimum. If Trump comes short of that number on the first ballot, he doesn't have the majority of delegates. That means that Ted and John's tentative alliance is only being used to influence the will of the people to deny Trump the majority and force a contested convention. Given how divided the Republican Party is - that might be a better thing than allowing Trump to win outright. While it looks like shady politician business - it's ultimately the people who decides if that deal works or doesn't work in the states of Indiana, New Mexico, and Oregon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eviora Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Unless Trump loses the first vote and BigoTed's shady dealings with delegates help him in the second. Then the will of the people counts for precisely nothing. So much for democracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted April 26, 2016 Author Share Posted April 26, 2016 That would make Ted Cruz just as awful as Woodrow Wilson - the president that got us through WWI and is credited by some with turning the Democratic Party into the party of reform that it is today. (The man won on the 46th ballot.) ... or Abraham Lincoln (who won on the third), the guy that successfully abolished slavery and salvaged a nation that split itself in half over the will to do so. When it comes to delegate nominating, the Trump team didn't know how to play the game - and they got beat to the punch in several states. That won't matter if he can win on the first ballot, but if Trump can't reach over 50 percent of the Party's delegates then he's just as much in the same boat as Cruz and Kasich when it comes to who the party supports - no real majority. That's what delegates are for. They go to a convention and settle scores the people don't clearly settle. If the majority of the party doesn't want a candidate, that candidate won't win the nomination, even if they are the front-runner. ....unless it's the Democratic Party and super delegates are the difference - but even without supers Bernie has a very, very small if any shot at the nomination. I don't see you calling for him to drop out - or even complaining about how the Democrats blatantly ignore the will of their constituency. You'd almost be right to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eviora Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Bernie is trying to win the nomination by getting lots of people to vote for him. I see no reason why he should be forced to drop out just because he's behind. Super delegates are undemocratic nonsense that he just has to work with. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go if he does poorly tonight. On the other hand, the scumbag you're so eager to defend has made the will of people the basis of his campaign and is now trying to circumvent it. Let the people decide on (and vote out) Supreme Courst justices, he says, but when he's the one losing the vote, he behaves like the snake he is and makes deals with delegates to avoid being eliminated. That doesn't sound like democracy to me. That sounds like legal corruption. Even if some good presidents did the same, that doesn't justify it. Sometimes, the ends really don't justify the means. Especially when the ends are also terrible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted April 26, 2016 Author Share Posted April 26, 2016 Making the will of the people a part of your appeal is a natural out if you still have a mathematical shot of winning the nomination on the first ballot. Now that Cruz doesn't, he has two options Drop out - which ensures Donald Trump wins the nomination. This essentially hands Hillary the presidency if current polling is to be bought. Stay in and try to keep Donald Trump from winning >50% of the delegates. This gives himself and John Kasich a chance to be the nominee - both of whom poll much better against Clinton. If it's a moral decision - I agree that with Ted that Trump is a danger to the most groups (and therefore is the most unelectable option) and therefore I do think he should contest the convention - especially if he is already doing well with 2nd ballot delegates. The problem with Bernie here is that he is essentially eliminated already - due to that undemocratic nonsense in itself. Bernie's chances of winning the pledged delegate count really do hinge on tonight - and I think he will stay in because he's already said numerous times on record that he would. Unless your man is just as much a liar as any other politician, he's going to stay in the race to the convention on his word knowing full well he would have to contest Hillary's victory and flip those party insiders in order to win the nomination himself. You have a liar - or a snake that is pressing on despite not having a majority behind him. Ted Cruz is running under the hopes that more people vote for him and that more people vote for the delegates on his slate when delegate voting takes place. I've already proven mathematically that unless the will of the people is that Trump has over 50 percent of the delegates, Cruz and Kasich aren't doing ANYTHING to circumvent anything. The details on the deal are simple - Kasich doesn't hold events or spend resources in Indiana in order to give Cruz the anti-Trump vote outright. Cruz returns the favor in NM and Oregon. People can still choose to vote for Kasich even if he doesn't come to the state to say "Hi", and people can still vote for Cruz in the other states (and probably will because those states are proportional and Cruz will get delegates if he's represented.) In other words, the candidates are hoping to induce strategic voting. It's a pressing question. Do you want Donald Trump to be the nominee or no? Vote for the other guy with the best shot in one state, and other states can vote for me without the threat of being wooed - and the result is that Trump doesn't hit his needed percentages because the VOTERS decided to go along with the plan. When it comes to later ballot voting - you have to show up and compete for the state conventions just like you did for yourself before the primaries. Cruz and Kasich did so - and Trump didn't. Trump circumvented the people if anything by failing to match their support with dedication in putting his loyalists on the states he won consistently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eviora Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 If current polling is to be bought, BigoTed winning the nomination also hands Hillary the presidency. You didn't prove anything to do with the will of the people mathematically. You just proved that the already known number was the smallest integer greater than 50% of the delegates. Your conception of "the will of the people" is too closely tied to a strict majority. If Trump has exactly 50% of the delegates, BigoTed has 40%, and Kasich has 10% (I'm just making these numbers up to illustrate my point), then Trump still represents the will of a significantly larger percentage of voters. (Assuming the delegate distribution process is reflective of the will of the people at all.) If the vote goes to the second round and the delegates just do whatever with no regards to how their state voted, then those votes were all essentially meaningless. The system is fundamentally broken to favor insiders over voters, and the guy who always rants about insiders is the one exploiting that fact rather than trying to expand his voter base everywhere he can. It may be effective politics, but it's just more hypocrisy coming from one of the most toxic politicians I've ever seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted April 26, 2016 Author Share Posted April 26, 2016 I'm glad you brought up delegate distribution - because in several states it doesn't reflect the will of the people. If it were doing that - the most determinate way of distributing delegates would be by proportion. Pennsylvania, which votes today - will only award 17 delegates to it's state winner and the rest of the 54 will be unbound delegates who can pick anyone on the first ballot. By far the most undemocratic state on the Republican map. Other states, like Missouri, are winner-take-all states. Trump had something of 40.8% of the vote. Cruz 40.3% - and instead of nearly half and half, Trump earned 71% of the state's delegates to Cruz's 15%. In other words, Trump's been a beneficiary of rigged politics in this race just as you claim Cruz is being. --- While in some areas delegation processes are insider-heavy, most states hold elections to determine the state's delegates. The problem with this is that it normally doesn't get as much hot press as the primaries themselves - and therefore most voters are uninformed of their existence. Those that -ARE- tend to be the more politically active citizens. The Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz types of voters that are ideologues. That's how Cruz has been racking up delegates above all else. He's been aware the most of these conventions and has attended the Wyomings and Colorados and North Dakotas of the country in order to put his people in the building in Cleveland. Face-time with voters. Stuff you normally do when trying to get the people to vote you into office. Like a good democratic-republic - the republic part of the marriage is what helps settle disputes the democracy can't by itself. The delegates represent the will of the people in many areas just as much as the primary votes do - and are only skewed because a candidate forgets to cover his behind or because the media doesn't make voters aware of the importance of state conventions. --- Yes, I am over-emphasizing the majority because you can't be the nominee unless you HAVE a delegate majority. Trump falling 50 percent or lower means that an equally important and equally-sized group of delegates (and in the first ballot, voters in general) DON'T want Trump to be the party nominee. A strict majority is absolutely crucial because that candidate is to represent the entire party in the election. Nobody wants a candidate that only has 40 some odd percent or lower support to be the nominee, but in a race when your alternative to Trump was literally SIXTEEN other people and the better options dropped out and you have basically Trump or Cruz....look where we are. Yeah, to the individual Trump supporter, it looks like their man had the most votes - but he didn't get enough - by rule - to win the nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted User Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Oh, look. Kasich and BigoTed are trying to undermine the primary voting process. So much for the will of the people. That's amusing. It really just goes to show your ignorance on things. The 'Will of the people' is far from clear cut. Only 37% of people have casted their votes for Donald Trump, while it's likely that much of the other 63% would like just about anyone over Trump. Yes Trump has the greatest percentage of the popular vote, in large part because of the crowded field of Trump vs Blah. That's why it goes to the convention if half the delegates are not reached. There is no flawless system. Trump benefits immensely from the delegate system opposed to the popular vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eviora Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 ...But all that writing ignores the hypocrisy that's the whole point of what I'm trying to say. And a lot of what you said is flawed logic, besides. The winner on the second vote may represent the majority of delegates but not the majority of voters. Not particularly helpful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted April 26, 2016 Author Share Posted April 26, 2016 But in the end, if the winner of the first ballot doesn't actually meet 50.0000001% mark of delegates - then the will of the people is either indeterminable in the case of a 50/50 split, or that the front-runner shouldn't be the nominee when taking all voters into consideration. Every vote - for and against - matters. It's not about having the biggest stamp collection. I haven't touched on Cruz being a hypocrite because I agree with you, Eviora - but he's at least not cheating and there are instances where the Trump camp really should have put more backbone into it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eviora Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 But it could be that the will of the people is split in such a way that no one actually has 50%+ of the vote. Using delegates instead of voters could result in choosing a candidate with a lower than optimal percentage of the people's vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted April 27, 2016 Author Share Posted April 27, 2016 Have you seen the Republican Party lately? Of course the vote could be split in a way that nobody has a 50%+ share, because the Republicans have been squabbling to the point of destruction. First they don't want Trump, then they decide Cruz is just as bad, then they decide they don't want Trump again and people begrudgingly get behind Cruz, then we have the Northeast vote Trump back into a state of momentum - and the whole time there has been no real separation and two very passionate groups. Trump supporters, and anybody but - for some that means even Hillary Clinton. --- Last night's results: Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. Clinton, Clinton, Clinton, Clinton. Sanders. In a matter of speaking, the front-runners all but declared the primary races over. Trump outright called himself the presumptive nominee, and outright called for both of his opponents to drop out of the race. Clinton wisely took a different turn, applauding Senator Sanders' efforts and attempting to build the bridge between her and his voter base. However, the night didn't solely end in victory and defeat though. Sanders himself came out with a determined effort to stay in the race until the convention - if for nothing but bolstering his presence on the Democratic Party platform in the name of progressive ideas. Ted Cruz addressed an Indianapolis crowd with much more confidence than when he addressed a crowd in Philadelphia following his defeat in New York. "We will run until the last vote is cast." "Truly I tell you, that the map looks much more favorable for us." - and perhaps the last statement is right for Senator Cruz, but the challenge now is that anyone not named Trump or Clinton better campaign as if they really have a reason to - and not at the other candidates expense. Sanders going with a pursuing bulldog approach on Clinton could continue to keep his supporters leery of a Clinton nomination and help the Republicans - who would probably need as much help as they can get with how much their party is suffering internal damage. Trump has officially "earned" the right to complain about internal fixing and if anything, nothing excites his base more than actually setting the house on fire. As a front-runner with a six state string of victories (and all of which were surprisingly above the usual Trump "ceiling") - it's going to be hard to call Trump wrong. He's got all the eggs in his basket going into May. This begs the question. Is it time for Republicans to swallow the pill and rally behind Trump? In a seriously odd turn of events, doing so may actually be the BEST chance the GOP has of winning the election in November. He still has a sized opposition within party ranks - let alone the entire country - but at this point in the cycle it's hard for anyone to get the Reds much more "excited" about anyone else - and many Trump backers wouldn't vote for anyone else vocally already. Unless the GOP gets it's act together, it could be the biggest landslide victory for the Democrats in a very long time. The bottom line about the last six states though? - All of them seem to be pretty safely "blue" states. Trump won't even get New York - his home - in a general election match-up. --- "Sure Bet States" - May Edition Clinton: Surprisingly, there's not a very easy way to say Clinton "has it in the bag" anywhere else right now. Sanders looks to remain competitive in all the remaining contests. For a placeholder, let's say she hangs on in Indiana next week due to having virtually all of the momentum on her end. I'll also give her New Jersey - due to it being very much an extension of New York. Sanders: Oregon sounds like the best bet for Sanders. It's a pretty liberal western state where his message has been received well and it likely won't have the persons-of-color numbers Clinton has reaped from in other states. Trump: New Jersey and West Virginia. Jersey is still an effective extension of New York and is composed of the Rockefeller Republicans (like his surrogate Chris Christie, the states governor) that helped the Donald run roughshod in the Northeast. West Virginia is the least educated state (college degree per capita) in the nation - a demographic that tends to be favorable to Trump. Cruz: Nothing's a sure bet if he can't win Indiana - but if he does, Nebraska will come out in full force like Kansas did. It may even still go Cruz if he loses. Kasich: HEY! CAN I WIN OHIO AGAIN!? - Kasich's best shot this month is Oregon, but because this campaign is literally doing nothing with it's life - and Oregon is a state that is proportional, he likely might still lose to Cruz (who won't even campaign there!) or even Trump here. --- News: In the same manner Ted Cruz was the first person to decide he wanted to run in 2016 - he's the first person to give out his running mate's name. Welcome back, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. I think this pick is actually pretty smart (if not expected) for three reasons: Cruz will in some circles close the book on April with a fresh headline that is positive. - April....was downright awful for the Cruz campaign, and if he hadn't had done something like this, that would be the thing people would be talking about in Indiana (and they still will) instead of the hopes of Cruz's campaign or the issues. The timing of this reminds me of the endorsement Donald Trump got from Sarah Palin before the Iowa caucuses. Trump was able to eat up headlines even without spending serious barnstorming hours and resources like Cruz did in order to win the state - and it helped his campaign start it's improbable roll to success after Iowa. It also means Trump will have to verbally complain about the Cruz-Kasich deal in order for that to remain in the headlines as well. With a shiny new Cruz-Fiorina ticket to gawk at, and a very close second with a week to work in order to jump Trump and get an extremely crucial win for any Republican not wanting Trump to get the nod - Cruz can start the month off in a manner of confidence we sure as heck didn't see the last two weeks. Carly Fiorina adds diversity to the Cruz ticket - and compliments Cruz's own diversity. - Ted Cruz is a self-avowed anti-Washington politician who happens to be a Cuban-American. Carly Fiorina is a a woman who isn't even a politician. Women are a vote that Clinton would desperately need in totality in order to beat Cruz head-to-head, and the Cruz ticket now presents an option. A woman's presence on the ticket also gives Republican women a reason to not back Trump in Indiana by saying "There's a woman on one ticket, and a guy who has said some pretty awful things about women on the other." Women make up a significant size of any voting bloc on either side of the aisle. Carly Fiorina is just at good as prosecuting Hillary Clinton as anyone else. - Carly was most-lauded for an undercard debate performance in which she drew compliments from opponent Rick Perry on the stage - for putting the coals on a prospects of a Hillary presidency. In both Cruz and Fiorina, you have a strong debate core that will be able to dog Clinton on issues she's not favorable on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eviora Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Looking at the numbers, if Trump completely sweeps California (winner take most, so he'll probably only take... most) and NJ (winner takes all) then he's a bit over 60 delegates short of the nomination. It looks like there are 4 proportional states left. If he can take about 33% of the delegates from those and like any other winner take all/most state, he's going to be very close to (if not over) the threshold. I believe polling suggests he's overwhelmingly ahead in California, so if he takes Indiana he may all but win then and there. It's pretty sad that I'm rooting for Trump to win the nomination... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted April 27, 2016 Author Share Posted April 27, 2016 California has been very hot and cold. There was a lot of buzz during Cruz's Utah-Wisconsin stretch that California was within single digits, and the Cruz campaign has a very solid California ground-game already in place and has for the whole year. Trump might -need- to win Indiana to avoid the state being highly competitive - but for now, the dominoes are looking pretty good for Trump. He's trending -and- Cruz is tapering off. It's going to come down to how Cruz does in May as to how close the contest is. I don't think Trump sweeps Cali only because there have been points of contention there before....but stranger things have happened. If I were a Democrat, I would want Trump to win the nomination. It gives my candidate the best chance to win in the fall. Don't be sad about that, Evi! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eviora Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 It's less about chances to win in the fall and more about wanting the most disgusting candidate to lose. I'd feel safer with Kasich than Trump, even though he's projected to beat Hillary. This has pretty much become an election where I can only afford to care about one issue. Root for one bigot to keep out another. There's nothing *not* sad about that. Like I said. Seriously considering Canada. Or some other options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted May 3, 2016 Author Share Posted May 3, 2016 Indiana looks like the most critical primary in the cycle - especially so for Senator Cruz, who would get a major boost with an upset there. Things he would need to earn in the next 5 days in order to make that happen? He needs Donald Trump to take the bait on Carly Fiorina.- Any effort by the Cruz campaign to look like the presumptive nominee is indicative of having some serious brass - and being extremely ego-maniacal in coordination. Such effort is exactly what Cruz got when naming a VP around 400 delegates behind the front-runner. However, his choice - Carly Fiorina - is a pretty strategic one for one thing. If Cruz's continued resistance and Carly's own attacks can draw the evil monster that is Trump's late-night Twitter account into the open, Trump is in significant risk of doing what he did in the lead-up to Wisconsin - alienating women. Fiorina is being used as a worm by Cruz here - and the pay-off of course is having a nice seat on the Senate floor and her name back in a presidential ticket. All that needs to happen, is for Trump to say something insensitive enough to draw another firestorm akin to the Heidi Cruz spat. He needs Kasich voters to get the memo, BADLY. - Fiorina isn't the only good thing Cruz has going running into Indiana. His other opponent - John Kasich - freely took a deal in not wasting resources in Indiana so as to clear the way for Cruz to deny Trump a winner-take-most state. Kasich voters jumping on Cruz's bandwagon would surely cause a victory for the senator because he would outperform his projected finish of 33 percent. While this doesn't slow down Trump's momentum, it would put him closer to Trump in the event that he -does- break his ceiling, and would surely pass him up if Trump doesn't overachieve. The bad news for Cruz here though - is that Kasich himself isn't keen on changing the narrative directly. Monday - he told Indy voters to vote for himself rather than to strategically vote for Cruz. The Indianapolis Star endorsed Kasich later on in the week. Indiana Kasich brass aren't exactly happy the governor is employing such strategy and many will still vote for Kasich despite their man's path-clearing. Thing is - Cruz needs all the help he can get (and so does Kasich) - so this move has to benefit him somewhere in the state in order for a Cruz victory to take place. He needs Trump's support to stay at 40% - or drop. - Another particularly difficult thing for Cruz is that Trump's loyalist base is very unwavering. They basically believe everything out of the Donald's mouth - and that results in making a Trump voter hard to flip. Therefore, if he's polling at 40 percent, Cruz might need to clear 40 percent himself in order to win - and that's not taking into account that if Trump convinces more voters, that percentage hurdle only gets higher and resultingly harder to climb. He needs the endorsement of Governor Mike Pence. - Gov. Pence finds himself in a very precarious situation. If here were to endorse Trump, the Trump campaign likely takes Indiana and very likely gets close to the magic number at the end of the summer. If Gov. Pence endorses Cruz... many of the state's Republicans would be more secure in being the state that throws the GOP into a contested convention. The last major victory Ted got - Wisconsin - was with a relatively early endorsement from Gov. Scott Walker - who also was a candidate in the race. Unlike appealing successfully to Walker, this is a much harder cookie to steal. Pence has his gubernatorial seat up for grabs, and a bad decision in the presidential race - Trump, Cruz, OR being non-committal to an extent - could cost the GOP the executive branch in the state. In many ways, Indiana is a state that is very similar to Wisconsin. It's a state that is very much conflicted about Trump and not necessarily for-or-against. However, Cruz got perhaps the most support from conservative radio in Wisconsin - of which is at worst Pro-Trump in Indiana, or at best tolerable of Trump. It's a state that takes more stock in social-conservatism than the states that closed out this month, but might care about blue-collar work issues more, which favors Trump. Update: Cruz got the endorsement from Gov. Pence. Other good news for the Texas senator - Trump seems to campaigning in California... where protesters are giving him a run for his money. --- Today's the day in Indianoplace. The Hoosier State's primary has a couple of interesting races on both sides of the aisle if we're being honest. Both Ted Cruz -and- Bernie Sanders are pushing for campaign legitimacy as it looks like they are both overstaying their welcome. Both men also have a fighter's chance of winning the state, which could potentially result in not only one - but two contested conventions this cycle. On the Democratic side, Sanders may contest only to influence the Democratic agenda in favor of socialist economic ideas, bank-breaking, and protectionism with regards to global trading. The Republicans are scrapping because their front runner is the most disliked of any in some time - with the two other men pointing to their campaigns are more effective and able to combat Hillary Clinton. Can Bernie Sanders win the state? The biggest break for the Berners today is that Indiana rocks an "open" primary - and the Sanders camp has been a very attractive buy for Independent liberals and younger voters that are not affiliated with a political party. That said, Indiana is a traditionally red conservative state - which favors Clinton. RealClearPolitics has Hill up by a mere 5 points. All-in-all, yeah, Bernie could pull the upset here. Is Cruz finished taking an "L" in Indiana? He won't drop out of the race - but his image will only continue to get worse. Cruz is down 10 points to Trump, which indicates that the Cruz camp needs a minor miracle to take the state. Six out of the last seven polls favor Trump ranging from a mere 2 point lead to a healthy 17 points. The issue however, is that Cruz is having to overcome an obvious stench of desperation and the excuse of running without a path to a first ballot victory. A loss here would severely hurt his standing among Republicans in California and would require Cruz to play "the Great Divider" even more in order than recommended in order to stop Trump later in the calendar. Is he finished? No - but suffocation will be begin. The other big problem is that Anti-Trump fundraisers are thinking about pulling out of Cruz's nest should the Texan come up empty handed, providing unwanted financial strife. How big is a Cruz win? Cruz winning Indiana would be substantial. Trump officially needs about 235 delegates to win the nomination. Assuming he wins New Jersey and West Virginia as expected, that number shrinks to 150 delegates. Indiana awards 57, and if Trump gets a majority of them, that would mean he's assured to be under 100 delegates after those three states have voted - and before proportionals like New Mexico and Oregon. ....and worst of all, before 172 delegate boasting California. It -looks- like Trump's path to ascendancy is very clear if Hoosiers enable him. The flip side though is that Trump would have to sit at 150 delegates after New Jersey and West Virginia. The following states are not Trump friendly. Nebraska - a winner take all expected to go widely for Cruz South Dakota - a winner take all expected to go widely for Cruz New Mexico - a purplish state that won't be keen on Trump if he loses Indiana Oregon - a Western liberal state that won't be keen on Trump and will be amenable to Cruz Washington - a Western state that looks good for Kasich or Cruz due to proportional delegation and California is partial to all of the candidates - in other words. Trump's likely going to need some delegate schmoozing of his own perhaps to get within striking distance of 1237 on the floor of the convention. However, this is only a scenario that takes place if Cruz is able to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greed_Demon Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 (edited) well well well looks like Cruz is out. In his defeat speech I was expecting him to shed his human skin and crawl back to the sewers like the smiley weasel he is. And honestly are we REALLY surprised by the outcome? Anyone who thought Cruz and the rest had a chance must have some SERIOUS denial! Edited May 4, 2016 by Greed_Demon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 In terms of Republicans, Ted Cruz was the most competitive candidate against the Donald. He just had his best states taken before anyone took Trump seriously. I'm not surprised by the outcome so much as I am surprised Cruz talked big and then saved face and actually stopped running when the jig was up. I wanted Cruz to win because I do believe Trump is going to need to pivot hard in order to beat Clinton, and because I was hoping the Republican Party would reform itself by disproving the notion that "if only a "real" conservative wins the nomination, we would have enough to win the Presidency in November." (and yes, I also believed Cruz was the best Constitutionalist and one that would pick the best SCOTUS replacement.) Cruz exiting the race now means he'll be right back around in 2020, potentially alongside Marco Rubio. Trump winning this primary race isn't good news for social liberals because it means that social conservatism will continue to struggle in future elections. It's not good for Republicans because instead of reform - the social cons are going to stand pat and wait for four years while the rest of the party doesn't get their help in November. Again. Potentially leading to a schism. Better get used to saying "Madam President." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greed_Demon Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 (edited) Oh no Cruz lost because people realized how much of a slime ball he is AND he mostly just appeals to Evangelicals . Hell you should be happy the bastard even got ONE vote after the bullshit he and his crew pulled with the government shutdown hes the type of guy who listens to people like Glen Beck and his madness. But don't worry Trump does not have to Pivot to beat Clinton as long as he does the same shit he has been doing with the stooges he trashed. Couple that with the millions of views those videos of Hillary lying her ass off PLUS the FBI investigation on her it looks unlikely she will win. And I for one would LOVE to see Hillary's smug face when Trump beats her. Also give up hope of the republicans reforming the lunatics run the asylum in that bitch. thats just wishful thinking on your part especially how broken the system is now. Edited May 4, 2016 by Greed_Demon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 I guess maybe for posterity, Trump -did- get some good news outside of the Republican Primary. The latest Rasmussen poll gave Trump a 41-39 advantage over Hillary Clinton. While this is potentially an outlier poll due to being very different from Clinton's usually favorable returns, Trump is now assuredly the nominee with only one-state-wonder John Kasich standing in between him and the nomination outright. On the other side, many Democrats haven't let go of Bernie Sanders, and Bernie hasn't let go of his own uphill battle for the presidential nomination. Clinton wins the percentage returns of base support, garnering 77 percent of Democratic voters to Trump's 73 percent of GOP voters. However, the poll suggests a bit of disloyalty toward Clinton from many in her own party, giving Trump the edge in crossover appeal 15 percent of Democrats as opposed to Clinton's 8 percent of Republicans. Trump losing the base support makes sense, as many Republicans up to today were keen on denying Trump the nomination and will have to soul-search in order to fall in line behind the Donald, while the Democrats had seen a relatively cordial and tame contest between their two prominent candidates and depending on the reason why the candidates are registered Democrats, it would make sense that many of them would support their party's candidate. However - I've already hinted at Trump's appeal with Sanders supporters. He has many of Sanders same positions on the following issues. 'Anti-Washington' campaign campaign-financing and process reform Protectionism Secondly, Bernie pushing to Philadelphia and contesting the convention will actually flip the narrative of what we were expecting. Sanders appears to be doing so in the name of platform standing, but even doing so will not sway some of his supporters to vote Clinton after months of being spoon-fed reasons not to back her. Republicans appear to be stowing their fists and plugging their noses, while suddenly, as Sanders pulled the win in Indiana, the Democratic race still looks very much alive. What if the Democrats give Trump all the time he needs to rehearse with a pointless platform battle? Trump could start making some unexpected gains. There's a couple of things that Trump has made marked improvement on with regards to social issues. His abortion stance is much more electable than most GOP presidents - and he's even gone so far to acknowledge and support other areas where Planned Parenthood is beneficial to America. His views on transgender bathroom usage are markedly different from social conservatives' meaning that a Trump general election stance won't give Clinton much leverage at all. And finally, Greed Demon does have a point - as that FBI scandal is still going on and could potentially hurt Clinton further if news breaks. This is offset by the fact that a New York judge recently took the Trump University case for consideration... So, both of our possibly criminal nominees could be in a.... shockingly, close race. God bless, America.... :/ PS: Lightning Round on which groups either candidate offends the most. Trump is still a staunch nativist, so his opponents will likely be Latin Americans opposed to his immigration reform proposals as well as Muslims. Clinton offends essentially every type of Republican - calling all members of the party 'Terrorists' on the trail multiple times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eviora Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 And then there was one. RIP Never-Trump Republicans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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