How Strong is Lin's Hydreigon?™: An Analysis [E16 SPOILERS]

[Despair Syndrome]

How Strong (weak) is Lin's Hydreigon?™

A Needlessly Long and Ultimately Pointless Analysis by Despair Syndrome

 

As anyone who's played through Reborn knows, the main antagonist of the game is Lin. Emotionless, cold and hair that looks suspiciously like a Chatot. All defining traits of a primary antagonist.

It is very likely that Lin will be the final boss of Reborn, and a trait which all final bosses have is that they are immensely strong (Final Fantasy X doesn't count). Lin is feared by everyone, friend and foe alike. This only shows to prove her immense power. Or does it?

 

This is an analysis (which is not meant to be humorous. Don't laugh.) about how strong (or weak) Lin's Hydreigon, the only Pokemon that she's been seen with so far, is. This is written in the hopes that the player will be more prepared in facing her strongest Pokemon when the time comes.

I suggest you finish E16 before reading this.

 

I. Gathering Clues

Lin's Hydreigon only appears twice in the game. The first time, on Tanzan Mountain, striking down Saphira's Dragonite. The second, in some building, defeating Ame's Ninetales. This may not seem like a lot, but we can gather a lot from these two scenes. Firstly, let us examine the battle with Saphira's Dragonite.

 

EXHIBIT A

Saphira and Lin meet atop Tanzan Mountain, where Lin strikes Saphira down with a single Draco Meteor.

There isn't much to be gained here, but we know this: Hydreigon outspeeds Dragonite and is able to one-shot it. For now, this isn't much to go on, but combined with...

 

EDIT: Hydreigon actually strikes down the giant Steelix, which is Lv75 and slow as shit. I don't think we can learn anything from this. My bad. :c

 

EXHIBIT B

Lin and Ame, champion of Reborn, face-off in a building turned into some Saw-esque death trap with (ugh) conveyor tiles. Seriously, Lin? Conveyor tiles?! Needlessly complex evil base design pretty much sums up Team Meteor.

From this battle, we can gather that: Ninetales outspeeds Hydreigon, Hydreigon manages to survive an attack that Ame assumes it would not be able to, and Hydreigon is strong enough to one-shot. These Exhibits provide us with some much needed hard evidence to pinpoint exactly how weak strong Lin's Hydreigon is.

 

Of course, concrete evidence concerning Lin's Hydreigon is very limited. Game developer, I am not. Therefore, in order to progress further into determining Hydreigon's strength, we have to get to...

 

II. Theory, Assumptions and Predictions

Hello, Reborn. Welcome to Reborn Theory!

Here, we will use the evidence we gathered to come up with (not so) definite numbers. Using the power of deduction (turns out reading every one of Sherlock's books paid off), we can gather much more than you might first think.

 

First, we must come up with Hydreigon's, Dragonite's and Ninetale's levels. This is purely assumption, but it is safe to say that since Ame is the champion, Ninetales would probably sit at the maximum threshold of Lv100. Given Lin's strength and how she is feared even by the admins of Team Meteor, who themselves have pretty powerful Pokemon, I will assume that Hydreigon is Lv100 as well.

 

More difficult to pinpoint is Dragonite's level. To determine it's level, we first have to figure out which gym leader Saphira is. Currently there are 4 gym leaders that haven't been fought yet - Hardy, Titania, Amaria and Saphira. It is made pretty clear in E16 that our next stop is Tourmaline Desert, where Titania's gym is so it's safe to assume he's the next gym leader, leaving only Saphira, Hardy and Amaria to be determined.

Using Adrienn's team as a baseline, we can figure out the levels of the aces of everyone else. Every gym follows pattern, where a gym leader has the average level of their Pokemon be 3-5 levels higher than the previous gym. Generally, a gym leader's ace will have a higher level than the other Pokemon depending on how weak the Pokemon itself is. Adrienn's team averages at Lv78 with xyr ace, Florges (which isn’t exactly a strong Pokemon) at Lv84.

 

With this, we can put the next 3 gym leader’s average levels at 83-ish, 88-ish, 93-ish and 98-ish respectively. Since a gym leader’s ace is always higher than the average, we can safely assume that Saphira’s Dragonite (which is a pretty strong Pokemon) shouldn’t be too high over the average. Maybe 3 levels at most. This puts her Dragonite at either Lv90-ish, Lv95-ish or even as high as Lv100 outright.

 

Next, we have to find out what move Ame used on Hydreigon that she claims it wouldn’t survive. This is pretty much a no-brainer. It would have to be Moonblast or Dazzling Gleam, given Hydreigon’s 4x weakness to Fairy.

 

Other assumptions we have to come up with are the field, natures and EV distributions. For the field, it is safe to assume that Lin and Saphira battled on the Mountain Field, which is not relevant and will be ignored like how my friends ignore my messages.

As for Ame and Lin’s battle, the field is probably a Factory/Short-Circuit field, the same field where you fought Arclight and Victoria. Flash Cannon is boosted in this field so take note. Dazzling Gleam is also boosted in the Short-Circuit Field so that is also important.

It is also assumed in Ame and Lin’s battle that both of their Pokemon are at full HP and Ame did not set up Aurora Veil because according to Pokelaw, the ace must be sent out last (screw you, Guzma/Bugsy), which doesn’t give Ame a good opportunity to set it up.

Now we will go into Natures and EVs in the next part.

 

III. Calculations

Math, math, math. Firstly, I shall begin by assuming all Pokemon have perfect IVs. Lin would probably be the type of person to breed competitively like that. Cause she’s a monster. Like all of us.

 

We shall start with Ame and Lin’s battle. Ame is probably packing the strongest form of Ninetales, given that she’s the champion. This would be a Timid Ninetales with Snow Warning, holding Light Clay and EVs invested into SpA and Speed although a Modest nature is also possible.

Her strongest attacks are Moonblast in the Factory Field and Dazzling Gleam in the Short-Circuit Field. We shall assume that the Short-Circuit Field is in play, where Dazzling Gleam and Flash Cannon both deal 1.5x more damage.

With Smogon’s calculator, I determined that the only way for Hydreigon to survive a field boosted Dazzling Gleam with Hail damage is if it had a SpDef boosting nature (Calm), EVs invested into HP and SpDef and holding an Assault Vest.

 

252+ SpA Ninetales-Alola Dazzling Gleam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Hydreigon: 220-264 (56.7 - 68%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after hail damage

 

Dazzling Gleam’s maximum damage of 240 is multiplied by 1.5 (boosted by the field) which makes it deal a maximum of 360. Hydreigon with 252 EVs in HP would have 388 HP. It would take 24 damage from Hail and 360 damage from Ninetale’s Dazzling Gleam, barely surviving with 4 HP.

If this battle were to take place in the Factory Field and Ninetales were to use Moonblast, Hydreidon can even survive without an EVs in HP.

If Ninetales was Modest, Hydreigon would have a 6.25% of being OHKO’d. The odds still being stacked against Ame.

 

0 SpA Hydreigon Flash Cannon vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Ninetales-Alola: 280-332 (97.5 - 115.6%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO

 

Hydreigon then proceeds to use Flash Cannon which Ninetales has a 12.5% chance of surviving under normal circumstances. However, the Short-Circuit Field boosts it by 1.5x, making it deal a minimum of 420 damage, which is more than enough to chunk away at Ninetale’s paltry 287 HP.

 

However, it is also equally likely no field is in play during Ame’s battle, which makes it unlikely for Flash Cannon to one-shot Ninetales. In this case, it is possible Nientales is holding a Life Orb.

A Life Orb Ninetales with Moonblast has a 6.25% chance of OHKO’ing Hydreigon after Hail damage. Should Hydreigon survive, the recoil from Life Orb is to give Hydreigon a 100% to one-shot it with unboosted Flash Cannon.

 

Thus it can be deduced that Lin’s Hydreigon has a Calm Nature and has 252 EVs in SpDef. It most likely will have 252 EVs in HP, but it could also be likely that 252 EVs could be in Speed or SpA.

However, a Hydreigon with this set would get outsped by a Lv95 Dragonite with a Speed boosting Nature and 252 EVs in Speed. This does not add up and now I want to kill myself.

Unless of course, Hydreigon was holding a Choice Scarf during the Dragonite battle. Allowing it to outspeed Saphira’s Dragonite and one-shot it.

 

0 SpA Hydreigon Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Dragonite: 378-446 (129.8 - 153.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

 

With this in mind, we can come up with the base stats for Lin’s Hydreigon.

Spoiler

 

Hydreigon (Lv.100)

HP: 388 (252 EVs)

Atk: 221 (Reduced by Calm Nature)

Def: 216

SpA: 286

SpD: 306 (Boosted by Calm Nature and 252 EVs)

Speed: 232

 

Of course, this entire analysis is built upon the faith that Ame doesn’t pull a fast one and make it so that Lin’s Hydreigon is actually a PULSE-mon or some MekaDragon or an illegal Hackmon with 252 EVs in every stat.

 

IV. Verdict

With this in mind, we now know that…

*drum roll please*

 

252 Atk Snubbull Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Hydreigon: 468-552 (120.6 - 142.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

 

A Lv100 Snubbull with 252 EVs in Atk and Speed, a Jolly Nature and a Choice Scarf is able to outspeed and one-shot Lin’s Hydreigon. Alternatively, Focus Sash works too.

 

Remember that girl in Northern Peridot Ward who couldn’t train her Snubbull cause she didn’t have enough badges?

Legend says that her Snubbull fell the strongest Pokemon in all of Reborn with one hit.

Amazing.

 

When we finally get to battle Lin, someone needs to make a video of this.

 

Of course all this is likely to change when we do battle Lin. Something tells me Ame won’t make Lin’s Hydreigon a shitty excuse for a wall.

After all, this is just a theory! A REBORN THEORY.

Thanks for reading!

 

Edited February 7, 2017 by Despair Syndrome

[Ice Cream Sand Witch]

20 minutes ago, Despair Syndrome said:

More difficult to pinpoint is Dragonite's level. To determine it's level, we first have to figure out which gym leader Saphira is. Currently there are 3 gym leaders that haven't been fought yet - Hardy, Titania and Saphira.

There's also Amaria. Titania is the leader who uses the desert. Hardy's gym is in Agate.

[Despair Syndrome]

18 minutes ago, Ice Cream Sand Witch said:

There's also Amaria. Titania is the leader who uses the desert. Hardy's gym is in Agate.

Damnit I got them mixed up. And I totally forgot Amaria. asdf

 

EDIT: (Sorta) fixed it, I'll redo calculations with a Lv100 Dragonite later.

Edited February 7, 2017 by Despair Syndrome

[Waynolt]

39 minutes ago, Despair Syndrome said:

 

Of course all this is likely to change when we do battle Lin. Something tells me Ame won’t make Lin’s Hydreigon a shitty excuse for a wall.

Also, considering how uninterested Lin seems to be with sentimental bonding, it probably wouldn't be out of character for her to ditch her ace for something stronger...

[Tartar]

4 minutes ago, Waynolt said:

Also, considering how uninterested Lin seems to be with sentimental bonding, it probably wouldn't be out of character for her to ditch her ace for something stronger...

It would be fun if for the final battle we'd have to face Lin (or someone else) using Legendaries and Mega (Rayquaza comes to mind), due to how sparsely those Pokémon have been used in the game.

Edited February 7, 2017 by Tartar

[WujiKyurem]

2 minutes ago, Tartar said:

inb4 Lin switching her Ace to Mega Rayquaza...

Definitely possible. Or maybe PULSE Darkrai, if that has anything to do with the sleep signal over Agate.

[Tartar]

*shudders* Please don't have use face a Pulse Primal Rayquaza, Ame... I beg of you

[Dreamy]

Couldn't Hydreigon be more offensively built with a focus sash? then getting the knockout before hail damage comes in because the battle ended? (or hail wasn't up)

[ArgenHyuu]

Plot Twist: Lin's Hydreigon is actually a Ditto

 

One Pokemon fangame that I know has removed the 'level 100 cap', which can make you level up your team above level 100, and enemies can have Pokemon above level 100. Not sure if Ame's going to develop such, but if Lin were to be the final boss of the game, I won't be surprised if her Hydreigon's level would be above 100. Though Hydreigon would really be overpowered that way, I think I can understand why.

[FairFamily]

Wait didn't Lin strike down the guargantuan steelix instead of the dragonite?

[Despair Syndrome]

39 minutes ago, DreamblitzX said:

Couldn't Hydreigon be more offensively built with a focus sash? then getting the knockout before hail damage comes in because the battle ended? (or hail wasn't up)

Oh uh...

This is more likely probable. But I think Ame would know if it survived by Focus Sash. She did say something along the lines of "What? How'd it survive that" instead of "Wtf Focus Sash, gr8 b8 m8"

 

4 minutes ago, FairFamily said:

Wait didn't Lin strike down the guargantuan steelix instead of the dragonite?

oh. shit. you're right.

There goes half my calculations out the window.

 

[hope4896]

Or Lin , who probably had excessive knowledge from the previous world/new world, managed to create (or get, or modify, either could work) a hacked Hydreigon with an IV spread of 124/124/124/124/124/124. 

 

Now come to think of it, as far as the levels between Hydreigon and Gargantuan Steelix were, Draco Meteor should be not very effective against Steelix. But still managed to one shot it.....

 

Pretty sure Saphira forgot to Max Revive it, or Full Restore.

Edited February 7, 2017 by hope4896

[PokeFailure]

Brilliant read, I don't understand a word of it but damn if it isn't fun. 

[Tacos]

2 hours ago, Tartar said:

It would be fun if for the final battle we'd have to face Lin (or someone else) using Legendaries and Mega (Rayquaza comes to mind), due to how sparsely those Pokémon have been used in the game.

No that's the updated Techie Jonathan battle.

[Egzample]

Congratz, poster, that`s a huge chunk of good, hard, totally useless work. I wish I had this much time. </salt> (sorry, couldnt resist ;D )

 

Take also into consideration that: In Reborn, Ame could be in fact terrbile, incompetent champion, got into her position thx to connections and bribe (Hello, Bennet) and used ineffective attack, or her mons were badly EV-trained.

[CrossImpact]

oh my, all this work going into Lin's Hydreigon while I have a feeling the battle itself won't be the biggest problem.
as a matter of fact:
Ame lost on purpose. Why?

Ame and Lin secretly are very best childhood friends. Their favourite pastime was ripping heads off of spiders, oh, it were happy times.
Their ways separated at some point, but given Lin's character as it is portrayed, she suffered severe emotional damage because of whatever happened after that.
When finally meeting again, Ame instantly senses that change within her.
Somewhere deep down resides old Lin, the happy, spider-head ripping Lin. That Lin doesn't like what she has become and of course is looking for a way out.
Lin has often thought about the time, the time when her world was still okay, and she remembered the joy she shared with Ame during said pastime.
Her innocent inner self never really understood the consequences, and the ruthless Lin that is visible to outsiders just doesn't care.
Inner Lin decides to send Ame a message, her last cry for help, which is interpreted poorly by outer Lin, as there would have been twelve Pokemon available as messengers instead.
She even raised her little Deino to become a Hydreigon, so she could have three chances in one to break free.
 
Knowing her way around the inner workings of a human, Ame already thought of all that. Unwilling to hurt the Pokemon, she reached her final conclusion:
If it comes to the worst, she would have to let it happen and be the ultimate sacrifice, the martyr-spider, so to speak, for the chance to bring Lin back to light.
It didn't work. The end.

[leocain]

Given that Team Meteor is behind the PULSEs, wouldn't it be possible that she used some artificial method to make her Hydreigon stronger than it should be? Even if it's dangerous, she lacks the empathy to care anyway. 

[Lucky98]

I haven't done the calculation for it, but is it possible her hydreigon was holding a roseli berry? 

If not, I'm just assuming it has a focus sash and managed to ohko ninetales because of the x4 field boosted flash cannon 

Edit: Maybe it could even hold an assault vest with max hp and max special attack

Edited February 7, 2017 by Lucky1998

[Farnsworth]

This is a pretty useless cool analysis of Lin's Hydreigon. However, I'm pretty sure that the Field which Ame and Lin are battling is the Factory Field, since after Lin uses Flash Cannon it says "Attack Sequence Initiate", which is something from the Factory Field and not the Short Circuit Field. Not only that but this field doubles the power of Flash Cannon, making it so the Hydreigon can easily OHKO the Ninetales.

[Monochrome_Complex]

The part where

 

 

Spoiler

she chomped off ame's head

had me like 0_0

 

Out of all the Meteors, Lin is easily the most threatening one. Sirius and Solaris feel like Fern and Blake compared to her.

 

Good analysis but I never really got the impression cut scenes like this ever really played into actual gameplay stats. Also you assume we'll max out at level 100, despite an NPC already hinting we might go beyond it(like Insurgence).

 

 

[iskelion]

You are ignoring a very important factor, that is the amount of pokemon used in a battle.

 

Even if we assume it wasn't a double battle, maybe Ninetales began fighting Hydreigon with low HP and maybe even some debuffs.

Maybe the previous pokemon gave Hydreigon a substitute or batton pass.

Maybe Ninetales was poisoned and died as soon as Hydreigon switched in.

Maybe Ame used the wrong attack.

Maybe the Ninetales was a Ditto.

Maybe it was a Shiny Ninetales and not an Alolan Ninetales.

 

Edited February 12, 2017 by iskelion

[Stryker Gryphus]

 

22 hours ago, iskelion said:

You are ignoring a very important factor, that is the amount of pokemon used in a battle.

 

Even if we assume it wasn't a double battle, maybe Ninetales began fighting Hydreigon with low HP and maybe even some debuffs.

Maybe the previous pokemon gave Hydreigon a substitute or batton pass.

Maybe Ninetales was poisoned and died as soon as Hydreigon switched in.

Maybe Ame used the wrong attack.

Maybe the Ninetales was a Ditto.

Maybe it was a Shiny Ninetales and not an Alolan Ninetales.

 

 

I highly doubt the last one. I checked the sprites and that was almost certainly an Alolan Ninetales. Plus, why would Lin choose Flash Cannon on a Ninetails when Hydreigon has access to other moves that would be effective against fire-types? The only reasonable explanation would be that the Ninetales was weak (in this case, doubly weak) against steel-type attacks.

As for your theory that Ninetales fainted due to poison, it was shown that Ninetales was ended by that Flash Cannon.

 

However, everything else pretty much checks out (except maybe the Ditto theory but that's not quite illogical, just improbable). Your first statement about the amount of Pokémon is especially deserving of attention. We don't know how long Ninetales has been on the field and how many other 'mons it had to face before it finally got KO'd.

[Ice Cream Sand Witch]

Additionally, a few weeks before the release of E16 Ame posted the sprite sheet for Alolan Ninetales on her twitter, which I don't see meriting that kind of reveal if it was a normal shiny Ninetales. Plus Reborn's shiny Ninetales is purple, not light blue. Ame has also mentioned wanting Alolan Ninetales by her side at all times. So it's definitely Alolan and not a shiny of Ninetales' regular form. 

[seki108]

On 2/7/2017 at 7:41 AM, example said:

Take also into consideration that: In Reborn, Ame could be in fact terrbile, incompetent champion, got into her position thx to connections and bribe (Hello, Bennet) and used ineffective attack, or her mons were badly EV-trained.

According to a post on Amethyst's tumblr, Ame was made Reborn champion because she was responsible for setting up the Reborn League again.  She compared it to the Kakui situation in Sun and Moon.  Amethyst definitely implied she was not a champion level battler, since the title was honorary.

 

Main source: http://amethystblack.tumblr.com/post/156306081887/did-the-champion-become-the-champion-just-because

Edited February 14, 2017 by seki108

[Farnsworth]

41 minutes ago, seki108 said:

According to a post on Amethyst's tumblr, Ame was made Reborn champion because she was responsible for setting up the Reborn League again.  She compared it to the Kakui situation in Sun and Moon.  Amethyst definitely implied she was not a champion level battler, since the title was honorary.

 

Main source: http://amethystblack.tumblr.com/post/156306081887/did-the-champion-become-the-champion-just-because

 

That isn't necessarily true, she could still be a very strong trainer. After all she was the one who brought all the powerful leaders to form the league again. Not to mention if she truly was weaker than some of the leaders and the E4, then someone would already have taken the title of champion from her. I believe the leaders and E4 have the right to challenge the champion for their title (at least in the official games they do). So at the very least Ame was the strongest trainer in the Reborn League.

Edited February 14, 2017 by Farnsworth