Courtship. Not In the Good Way Either.

[Chase]

You know. I don't think I've ever cared to hear the word "precedent" so often in my life.

 

Welcome to the Supreme Court Foodfight-athlon, brought to you against your will by the United States Senate. In the last episode we brought you a bunch of red-state rebels giving President Obama and his nominee Judge Merrick Garland the bird and keeping the doors to the Capitol building locked tight, leaving Garland out in the cold. Since then, the Republican senators were REWARDED for their blockade by the American .....well, i'd say people but I'll just say American map because Hillary won the popular vote (this is going to be a running joke in all of these threads.) -... by giving them a Republican president that would go on to eventually put on a much better judge for consideration (in their opinion) who goes by the name Neil Gorsuch.

 

Gorsuch breezed through a rather uneventful hearing - one that the aforementioned Garland wasn't even allowed - ...and because of a number of factors, many Democratic votes (some of which President Trump and the Republicans need to confirm Gorsuch under the current Senate rules) are being voraciously denied in favor of filibustering the nominee. Why is a filibuster necessary? Well, supposedly it would provide cause for the Republicans to go back and draw another nominee. Unfortunately what makes the Democrats' job a little harder than last years' Republicans is that they are the minority party and Republicans can just change those Senate rules with a simple majority vote. This vote would allow Gorsuch - and whoever else Trump or future presidents nominate - to vote down party lines and exclude the minority in deciding SCOTUS members' fates.

 

The current 60-vote threshold is what truly makes the Senate the higher legislative body on the Hill. Because of the high amount of votes needed, bipartisan effort is almost always needed to clear the threshold. This encourages centrism and dealmaking and keeps America from falling off the table for one ideology or the other. This makes the so-called "nuclear option" a devastating long term effect on the Senate, because it would make the votes-needed count 50, an easily reached number of seats by one party. Then the Senate would boil down to the level the House of Representatives is in - where majority -clearly- rules.

 

The Scene:

 

Republicans are in desperate need to kickstart something in order to get their agenda rolling in D.C. After last weeks healthcare flop, and the ever stormy gales that surrounding the Trump administration, the optics for the new majority party in Washington are rather bleak. Gorsuch would assauge many of the voters that pushed Trump over Clinton and would return the Supreme Court, a body that has been ineffective at times in overturning cases due to holding only an even amount of Justices, to a 5-4 conservative tilt. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell - the same man that denied Garland before he was even nominated confirmation - has been rather bold in proclaiming Gorsuch's fate - that he will be confirmed before the Easter recess in early April. He has told his Senate colleagues to not be afraid of voting for a rules change in order to push Garland through. GOP senators are aware of a time when they were filibustering virtually every lower court nominee of Obama's in 2013, when then-Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid would invoke the "nuclear option" to silence them - for the first time. This would make the Democratic party the "precedent" setter with regards to simple majority voting on judiciary nominees. Revenge has become rather sweet in Washington lately. The GOP, should it come down to it, would only need 51 votes to re-write the rules - a feat they can manage without Democratic support.

 

Democrats don't have a clear option as to what they should do from here. Pretty much all of them are not exactly thrilled about Judge Gorsuch, but there are a few that are leery of a rules change. Particularly if it's made and then sometime sooner rather than later a more liberal justice -such as Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg- needs to be replaced. A nuclear option rules change would enable Trump to be very skimpy on vetting and place pretty much whoever he wanted in that spot, providing a dangerously hard-right nominee a free seat and putting cases such as Roe v. Wade and Obergefell v. Hodges in considerable risk under a 6-3 conservative court. However, following the collapse of the American Health Care Act and the surge in grassroots activism on the left following the November elections, Democratic congressmen and women are being put under intense directive to fight, fight, fight over provide a working order with Republicans. The liberal grassroots believe they have the momentum, and seem to want to see Democrats throwing punches rather than compromising, which would be seen as lying down.

 

The Risk:

 

If the GOP were to decide NOT to invoke the nuclear option, it is looking like Gorsuch would NOT have enough votes to clear the 60 vote threshold, and it would be a major upset - the second in the span of two weeks - for the Democrats.

 

If the GOP does invoke the nuclear option, the Senate will lose a bit of it's bipartisan motivation could place potential nominees and legislature in a precarious spot. Gorsuch would undoubtedly be confirmed, and Trump may get to freely pick a second nominee depending on the fortitude of a couple justices currently serving on the bench.

 

Gorsuch has a very high chance of getting the nomination, either via the nuclear option -or- by Democrats abandoning ship in order to live to fight another nominee.

 

 

 

[Eviora]

"Not in the good way" is right. I'd really prefer for this guy to go away, but he'll probably weasel his way through. Decades more of oppression for me. At least it's comfortable inside this tower.

[Chase]

If I were you, Eviora, I would want to bite the bullet and take Gorsuch without killing the filibuster.

 

It was a 5-4 conservative court that decided Obergefell, meaning liberal rulings are still very much possible, especially with Justices Anthony Kennedy and John Roberts being wildcards on the bench as opposed to reliably conservative votes. The only thing Gorsuch does is replace Scalia with - at worst - Scalia.

 

I would save a filibuster for the END of a Trump presidency where it could become critical to ensure President Trump does his homework on any potential replacement for a Kennedy, Breyer, or Ginsburg. Picking a silly Justice would directly hurt his re-election bid with moderate voters and years of melodrama may nullify his advantage as the incumbent president. As it stands right now, Gorsuch doesn't automatically ensure that Republicans are going to implement marshal law and do it without opposition. It's a safe bet to assume that the older justices have drifted leftward with age and that it's not as big of a deal as it sounds.

 

---

 

I can't blame the liberal congressfolk for wanting to fight now though. Lying down hurts their re-election chances and the Democrats are playing from 15 seats behind in the upcoming midterms. If being as obstructionist as possible is what your base wants and you happen to like being in D.C. then you gotta do what you gotta do. I just think the special interests and the liberal grassroots don't really understand the ramifications of successfully causing the nuclear option to be employed long-term.

[Eviora]

I may be crazy, but even I'm not so far gone that I actually want to bite a bullet. It can't be good for your teeth. Strategy is nice and all, but it's not like I get to make any choices regarding that, so sticking out my tongue at people who would hurt me is about the limit of what I can do. I've already 90% given up on this shameful world, anyway. If others decide they want to juggle nukes, good luck with that.

 

 

[Lord Drakyle]

I have never been more confused in my life, just reading this sent my brain spinning most I could get from it was it appears to be something to do with politics but majority of the names I never even heard of.

 

Then again I live in a different plane of existence, The Forbidden Lands, so it makes sense to not know majority of these people, but in simple terms just what exactly is happening? Basically what is this about a nuclear option for? They planning on trying to nuke where I live?

Edited March 31, 2017 by Lord Drakyle