[Town Wins!] Danganronpa: Life Keeps Killing Mafia

[Eviora]

No, I don't think that reason is sufficient at all. We can break the outcomes into two cases:

 

1. Suppose you choose your kills well. That would make us less likely to lynch you and more urgent that the mafia do so.

 

2. Suppose you choose your kills poorly. In that case, it's still in our favor to lynch you even if you are Mondo.

 

In short, the only way the mafia would let you live is if you were actively hindering us.

[cicada]

Except I won't get the chance to prove my worth as it seems I am about to die. Smh.

[andracass]

And you weren't roleblocked?

[cicada]

I wasn't informed so I assume I wasn't.

[andracass]

Interesting.

So, at minimum, one of the following people are mafia: Lykos, Jace, Nick

[Mr. Knightly]

 

54 minutes ago, Eviora said:

No, I don't think that reason is sufficient at all. We can break the outcomes into two cases:

 

1. Suppose you choose your kills well. That would make us less likely to lynch you and more urgent that the mafia do so.

 

2. Suppose you choose your kills poorly. In that case, it's still in our favor to lynch you even if you are Mondo.

 

In short, the only way the mafia would let you live is if you were actively hindering us.

I agree with this 100%. Two thoughts though real quick. If we let Nicki live and she isn't the Mondo, then Mondo has no reason not to kill her. If she is indeed mondo then we can keep a townie and have a vigilante to shoot people (if she lives), or at least take a bullet for one of the other townies. I think perhaps the wisest idea would be to let her live for tonight. Thoughts guys?

[Eviora]

@Mr. Knightly I think you just want to win the vote. =p

 

Also, @andracass, what leads you to say that?

[Mr. Knightly]

@Eviora I honestly can't say I expected you to say anything different. Plus the main flaw is we don't know what Nicki is till tomorrow if we don't lynch her today.

[Walpurgis]

I was a bit on the fence, but these last posts make me lean towards lynching Nicki. I don't feel her roleclaim is sincere.

[Eliminate] Purplecicada

[andracass]

@Eviora So, kind of similar to what you did with Sayaka in trying to get others to lie about their role, I was the other roleblock-ee (and probably had one of the roleblockers rolling their eyes at me). 

So far, three people (Jace, Lykos, and Nick) have all stated whether or not they were roleblocked, but merely by answering the question they've revealed that they have a role that is blockable. There are a total of 8 such roles: Kyoko, Mondo, Sakura, Aoi, Toko, Junko, Mono, and Celestia. Aoi is Alistair; Mondo is Nicki; I'm one of the others. That leaves five roles for the other three people- but only two of the remaining roles are Town. One of the three people who weren't roleblocked are definitely mafia.

@Walpurgis Honestly, the mondo roleclaim makes perfect sense to me. 

[Eviora]

@andracass Do note you're assuming Nicki is Mondo. I believe we'll  find out soon whether that's true. If she isn't, the problem disappears.

[andracass]

That's true, but now that I've said that I have a role that's blockable, if one other person knows that they also have a blockable town role then we'd still have the same situation.

I'm assuming Nicki is mondo, but I'm finding it to be a pretty safe assumption. Nicki being Mondo would also explain why so many people are getting mafia vibes off of her- Mondo's a pretty powerful town role, after all. 

[Eviora]

By the way, according to L'Belle's previous post, I believe Alter Ego is considered to have a night action, so there's one more than you think.

[L'Belle]

Just a notice: I'm currently exhausted, so I'm going to sleep early, which means I will not be able to switch phases at the specified time. I will change phases as soon as I wake up instead. This means that you will get a small extension.

[andracass]

@Eviora It counts as a visit, but I'd be wondering if it's blockable- picking the lovers is a single-use power, anyway. It's certainly a fair point, though. 

[Walpurgis]

1 hour ago, andracass said:

@Eviora So, kind of similar to what you did with Sayaka in trying to get others to lie about their role, I was the other roleblock-ee (and probably had one of the roleblockers rolling their eyes at me). 

So far, three people (Jace, Lykos, and Nick) have all stated whether or not they were roleblocked, but merely by answering the question they've revealed that they have a role that is blockable. There are a total of 8 such roles: Kyoko, Mondo, Sakura, Aoi, Toko, Junko, Mono, and Celestia. Aoi is Alistair; Mondo is Nicki; I'm one of the others. That leaves five roles for the other three people- but only two of the remaining roles are Town. One of the three people who weren't roleblocked are definitely mafia.

@Walpurgis Honestly, the mondo roleclaim makes perfect sense to me. 

It's not about it making sense or not, it's about her behavior. Maybe she's just being like that because she doesn't feel confident and that makes her not be able to be relaxed even if she shouldn't have a reason to be nervous (?) and that makes her look scummier which tbh wouldn't surprise me that much. Hhhhhhhh.

[Unvote] Nicki

[Abstain]

This is probably not going to save her but.

[LykosHand]

@andracass "So far, three people (Jace, Lykos, and Nick) have all stated whether or not they were roleblocked, but merely by answering the question they've revealed that they have a role that is blockable. There are a total of 8 such roles: Kyoko, Mondo, Sakura, Aoi, Toko, Junko, Mono, and Celestia. Aoi is Alistair; Mondo is Nicki; I'm one of the others. That leaves five roles for the other three people- but only two of the remaining roles are Town. One of the three people who weren't roleblocked are definitely mafia."

How you can be so sure that one of those people are definitely mafia including me? If i haven't been roleblocked last night, it doesn't mean that i'm 100% mafia. I could be any role tbh, i didn't say that my role is blockable. 

Anyway, i'm sorry but my i will keep my vote on Nicki, i find it very strange that she could be Mondo. 

[andracass]

51 minutes ago, LykosHand said:

@andracass "So far, three people (Jace, Lykos, and Nick) have all stated whether or not they were roleblocked, but merely by answering the question they've revealed that they have a role that is blockable. There are a total of 8 such roles: Kyoko, Mondo, Sakura, Aoi, Toko, Junko, Mono, and Celestia. Aoi is Alistair; Mondo is Nicki; I'm one of the others. That leaves five roles for the other three people- but only two of the remaining roles are Town. One of the three people who weren't roleblocked are definitely mafia."

How you can be so sure that one of those people are definitely mafia including me? If i haven't been roleblocked last night, it doesn't mean that i'm 100% mafia. I could be any role tbh, i didn't say that my role is blockable. 

Anyway, i'm sorry but my i will keep my vote on Nicki, i find it very strange that she could be Mondo. 

...never said it was you, just said it could be you. You could be any role, but your past comments indicate that you're one of a certain category of role. You could be a town role within that category, but this comment is reeeeeeally making me think otherwise.

It probably won't matter today, but maybe will a different day.

[Walpurgis]

This new girl is really smart and it worries me because I don't know her enough to be able to attempt to read her.

[LykosHand]

I just put myself as an example, only because you said that one of those three people are definitely mafia in your opinion. But probably i just read in a wrong way your post, if yes well i apologize for that.

[andracass]

@LykosHand Consider me thoroughly unconvinced.

@Walpurgis aw thx~

[NickCrash]

"So far, three people (Jace, Lykos, and Nick) have all stated whether or not they were roleblocked, but merely by answering the question they've revealed that they have a role that is blockable. There are a total of 8 such roles: Kyoko, Mondo, Sakura, Aoi, Toko, Junko, Mono, and Celestia. Aoi is Alistair; Mondo is Nicki; I'm one of the others. That leaves five roles for the other three people- but only two of the remaining roles are Town. One of the three people who weren't roleblocked are definitely mafia."

 

That's a logical fallacy. Any role could be attempted to be roleblocked. 

 

However, even going by your logic, your role is not necessarily town. You just claim it is.

Nicki claims to be Mondo (vigilante). It's not proven. And it's most probably a fake claim.

 

So it would be 5 people (Jace, Lykos, Nick, Andracass and Nicki) who would claim to have roleblock-able roles.

The roles that can visit, and thus can be roleblocked are 9, not 8 (according to L'Belle Alter Ego's choice counts as a visit)

So we have 8 roles alive. 3 visiting roles are mafia, so statistically speaking, all 5 of us could be town.

Yet, the rush to accuse makes me think that's not really the case now. There's probably another one in that list, yet it's too early to tell.

 

@Walpurgis I would like your thoughts on the matter.

 

[Walpurgis]

8 minutes ago, NickCrash said:

"So far, three people (Jace, Lykos, and Nick) have all stated whether or not they were roleblocked, but merely by answering the question they've revealed that they have a role that is blockable. There are a total of 8 such roles: Kyoko, Mondo, Sakura, Aoi, Toko, Junko, Mono, and Celestia. Aoi is Alistair; Mondo is Nicki; I'm one of the others. That leaves five roles for the other three people- but only two of the remaining roles are Town. One of the three people who weren't roleblocked are definitely mafia."

 

That's a logical fallacy. Any role could be attempted to be roleblocked. 

 

However, even going by your logic, your role is not necessarily town. You just claim it is.

Nicki claims to be Mondo (vigilante). It's not proven. And it's most probably a fake claim.

 

So it would be 5 people (Jace, Lykos, Nick, Andracass and Nicki) who would claim to have roleblock-able roles.

The roles that can visit, and thus can be roleblocked are 9, not 8 (according to L'Belle Alter Ego's choice counts as a visit)

So we have 8 roles alive. 3 visiting roles are mafia, so statistically speaking, all 5 of us could be town.

Yet, the rush to accuse makes me think that's not really the case now. There's probably another one in that list, yet it's too early to tell.

 

@Walpurgis I would like your thoughts on the matter.

 

I feel she's being genuine even if she might be wrong but since I haven't been following this game so closely and she's new I'm not very sure. Same about Lykos, what he says seems to be genuine. I don't really have a lot to say, but at least for now I'm inclined to believe both are town.

[Bok Choi]

Ooooh I love psychology, stuff like this makes me happy heeee

@NickCrash  What Andracass asked was a leading question. By asking "were you roleblocked", any people who respond to her with yes or no automatically make the assumption that they can and could be roleblocked. It's actually really smart in a social game like this and I smiled a little when I saw her analysis.

[andracass]

@NickCrash A logical fallacy would be considering my statement to be a direct accusation. But I'll bite.

Let's do this one step at a time.

 

"That's a logical fallacy. Any role could be attempted to be roleblocked. "

You're not wrong, but I don't think you understand exactly how this trap works- it's not simply about whether or not you were roleblocked, it's also about whether or not you'd even know in the first place. If you didn't use your role (see: Nicki) or do not have a role that can be "used" then you would be unable to answer my question in the first place. 

(Plus, if someone else claimed to be blocked, then I'd know they're lying, but that's the more basic side of the trap.)

 

"However, even going by your logic, your role is not necessarily town. You just claim it is."

I mean, I know if my role is town or not. You're free to debate it. It doesn't change the fact that at least one of us (I'll add a bit of personal risk by throwing myself into this too) is mafia.

 

"Nicki claims to be Mondo (vigilante). It's not proven. And it's most probably a fake claim."

How do you know it's a fake claim? You're certainly correct that this isn't proven, but nothing that you're saying is proven either. For example: prove it's a fake claim.

 

"So it would be 5 people (Jace, Lykos, Nick, Andracass and Nicki) who would claim to have roleblock-able roles."

First of all, Cass is fine.

Technically, no one has claimed to have a roleblockable role- that itself is a claim that I'm making, and it's only one that can be debated upon me revealing that this is a trap. Until I reveal it, stating whether or not you were roleblocked is a great way to gain trust while (under normal circumstances) giving very little information.

 

"The roles that can visit, and thus can be roleblocked are 9, not 8 (according to L'Belle Alter Ego's choice counts as a visit)."

As stated before, I'd be wondering if Alter Ego's role would work like that in practice.

Should it not be, then this would remain an oversight on my part, though one easily corrected for anyone else who has a blockable role. 

 

"Yet, the rush to accuse makes me think that's not really the case now. There's probably another one in that list, yet it's too early to tell."

That's not what I'm doing. The case against Nicki is, in short, "you seem weird so you're maf." What I'm doing is proposing a system that's a little bit more rational.