"Grab 'em by the Midterms" - 2018 US Midterm Election Thread

[Chase]

Oooh, it feels good to be back.

The first order of business here is to link your voter registration deadlines - some of you may have already missed them but extending circumstances such as Hurricane Michael in the southeast may allow you to register after the deadline so that you can vote in this year's midterm elections. You can find your state's registration date here:

Spoiler

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/06/us/politics/state-voter-registration-deadlines.html

 

The second order of business is to tell you what "midterm elections" are - Midterms, as they are in school when you take major tests, are the "major tests" faced by incumbent legislators in Congress two years after a Presidential Election, as well as their challengers. The difference between a midterm election and a presidential election is that the current President of the United States does not have to face voters this cycle, which leaves only affected Congress-folks. So....sorry if you are already chomping at the bit to knock off President Trump. You only have to keep that enthusiasm for two years... and as President Obama once said. Don't boo. Vote. Even this cycle.

 

If you have been living under a rock - here's what's really important on the ballot this November:

 

1. The Trump Referendum.

 

Basically, if you believe that President Trump's policies have been mostly helpful for America, that he has been true to his word about going after said policies, and you would like to see him continue to enact said policies - you will want to make sure to elect as many Republicans on your ballot as you can. Currently, the Presidency and Congress are both in Republican control. Don't like Trump or the GOP? Your goal would probably be to try and elect all of the Democrats on your ballot. Hate Trump but like your Republican congressmen? This bullet-point isn't going to be a major decision for you.

 

2. "It's the economy, Stupid." - James Carville

 

Currently, the stock market under the Trump Presidency has been two things. Disturbingly variable, and yet mostly very positive. Jobs reports have been promising. Your vote here depends on how you view these results, either as the result of the Trump administration's aggressive tariff wars and protectionism, or as a carry-over effect of the Obama administration. Pro-Trumpers should vote Republican, Pro-Obama voters will be voting Democratic to prevent what may be an inevitable major recession or out of the belief that 44 is getting his credit taken away by 45.

 

3. Republicans v. the Affordable Care Act

 

One of the biggest objective failures of the Trump administration and the Republican Party to date was having to eat the late John McCain's "No" vote on repealing and replacing "Obamacare", officially known as the "Affordable Care Act". However, they have been able to knock out the individual mandate that was the most disliked part of the legislation, which required citizens to pay a penalty if they did not own healthcare for themselves. If killing the individual mandate was enough for you - vote Republican. If too much of the bill remains alive in your opinion - you will probably need to vote for a Republican, especially if you have a moderate Republican or any Democrat on your ballot defending a seat. If you are afraid Republicans will continue to go after the bill and axe something like say... coverage for pre-existing conditions - you might want to consider voting Democratic. If protecting Obama's biggest legislative achievement matters to you as a voter, get out there and vote Democratic.

 

4. The Image of America

 

Vague title aside, this is the home for all of your identity-related politics. If you are a full-throated conservative, a religious person already in the United States, an entrepreneur, or an agricultural expert - you will probably want to consider voting Republican. If you are concerned with women's rights, rights for minorities, live in cities, college towns, or the suburbs, support worker's unions, or consider yourself a blue-blooded liberal, you will want to vote for Democrats.

 

5. The Future

 

What may finally become a ballot-box issue for liberals this year is the matter of the dominant ideas found throughout the American Judiciary. With Justice Brett Kavanaugh being successfully sworn in, The Supreme Court of the United States sits at a solid 5-4 conservative majority (the Chief Justice John Roberts, who previously votes reliably in the favor of conservatives, is now the center justice), with President Trump successfully confirming him and colleague Justice Neil Gorsuch before voters have had a chance to have their say on his nominations. Liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg (otherwise known as the Notorious RBG) is 85 years old, and her liberal colleague Stephen Breyer is 80. A Trump Presidency with two more years of a Senate Majority in his favor could (not likely given how RBG can do more push ups than me at 85...) potentially give conservative voters a 7-2 majority on the court, almost certainly endangering decisions such as Roe v. Wade (abortion available in all 50 states) and Obergefell v. Hodges (homosexual right to marry in all 50 states) Liberals need to vote for Democratic Senate hopefuls in order to cause disruption with the "advice and consent" process and protect any liberal rulings from helpless minority defenses.

 

MY Predictions:

 

Democrats retake the House of Representatives

 

Republicans look very different depending on districts that are up for grabs. Suburban Republicans are typically college educated white people who are less likely to approve of President Trump - and this will hurt Republicans who have to lean on him in those districts. The House congressional map doesn't favor Republicans in large part due to a two-year-long "Resistance"-charged enthusiasm gap and because most of their fights will be in the suburbs while losing more seats the Democrats this cycle.

 

Republicans hold onto the Senate

 

Democrats have to play defense more than they would like here. With the Kavanaugh debacle closing the enthusiasm gap by awakening the Republican base, Democrats have to hope they can win something like both Tennessee and Texas as well as hold onto all of their current seats. I don't see that happening, especially now that Heidi Heitkamp voted "No" on Kavanaugh in deep red North Dakota...when she was already down somewhere between 8 and 12 points in her race.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ProjectIceman]

I like this. Very informative while gutting out the excess information that people tend to not understand about politics. Also doesn't step on the toes of those who are strongly affiliated with a party (imo).

 

Thanks for this!

[Chase]

No problem PIM, I may have a personal preference one way or the other myself in some of those races, but I think people being aware of their options and their civic duties is more important than me getting what I want.

 

---

 

Couple of things to watch for.

 

The Second Year of the Woman?

 

Once upon a time, in 1991, Justice Clarence Thomas was accused of sexually assaulting professor Anita Hill during his confirmation process - after which he was successfully confirmed to the bench. Following that year, in the 1992 elections, many, many, many more women than ever before were elected into major offices across the country, including some of the major congresswomen that are still in Washington hard at work today.

 

That story should sound familiar - because the Justice Brett Kavanaugh hearings in the not very distant past featured what may be a similar omen. Justice Kavanaugh was accused - primarily - by another professor, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford - of a sexual assault that had happened years prior to the nomination. The result was the same, despite being nearly thirty years apart from the Thomas hearings. Judge Kavanaugh was sworn in as Justice Kavanaugh. The confirmation was just as brutal a moment for America as Thomas' hearing was, and with the backdrop of President Trump's low approval among women coupled with the #MeToo movement, many Democratic Senate and House hopefuls identify as women, as well as a few Republican women who are also testing the waters.

 

If Democrats make significant gains, it will most likely be because women spearheaded the takeover effort.

 

The "M" and "I" Words:

 

Republican candidates have a couple of issues that are not policy related that they can lean on to fire up their base.

 

• "Mob rule" - Mainstream media has a tendency to lean leftward when it comes to American political spin - with the exception of Fox News. (the best way to tell, is to watch what was once not even a political messaging effort a majority of the time - late night television.) The MSM recently has tried to combat a conservative messaging angle the Republican Party and FNC have been labeling liberal candidates and voters as recently - Mobs. A Republican talking head would point to the recent Kavanaugh riots that led to banging on the doors of the Supreme Court as Kavanaugh was being sworn in, the Anti-Facism (Antifa) group that was in the streets attacking drivers in Portland, Oregon following a police shooting, ricin being sent to the Pentagon and the White House with the intent to harm Trump and his Cabinet members, and Senator Ted Cruz (Texas) and his wife being forced out of a restaurant by protestors who were upset about his eventual vote to confirm the newest Supreme Court Justice as examples of mob action - and then point to figures such as former Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton, Former Attorney General Eric Holder, Senator Cory Booker (New Jersey),  and Congresswoman Maxine Waters (California) as Democratic leaders who have said things like "You can't be civil" with Republicans, or riffing on former First Lady Michelle Obama's "If they go low, we go high" doctrine with an alternative message (If they go low, we kick them.), or encouraging forming a crowd and telling members of the Trump Administration that they are not welcome when they are spotted in public. A Democratic strategist - or a MSM show host? They would respond with "That's the sound of democracy" if they were being open for discussion. If it seemed they were threatened by the suggestion that the protesting has gone too far, they would respond with "Don't call it a mob." - which plays into a Democratic tendency to be offended by something many Americans would not consider initially offensive and is really an example of too much political correctness.
• "Impeachment" -  A slew of Democratic candidates/congressmen have been aloof when it comes to the prospect of impeaching President Trump - and more recently Justice Brett Kavanaugh - with many leaving the door open if the party can recapture a majority in one of/both the bodies of Congress. Trump has seized on this and used the threat of impeachment as a threat to his own voters - saying that if they win, the impeachment of himself and his justice would result in the undoing of everything the President has been able to accomplish so far. You haven't seen Democrats unify to come out for the prospect of impeaching either, but there are a few, such as liberal upstart Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York) who have been vocal about it as an issue to fire up their own bases.

[Chase]

I wanna talk some Senate races, notably the ones that are considered toss-ups and could very well determine if the Democratic "blue wave" is the result of normal political ebb and flow or is a #Resistance charged force that will cause the Senate to change hands. EARLY VOTING STARTS IN TEXAS TOMORROW, so if voting before Election Day is your kind of thing, start looking for when it opens in yours.

 

NEVADA

 

Spoiler

 

Nevada doesn't have vast regions of suburban life outside of Clark County (Las Vegas), which means that you are either living in the Reno/Sparks areas, "Sin City" itself, or ....you have very few neighbors. What this means for Nevada's demographics is that one of the city areas being huge means that a significant amount of votes are being cast by urbanites. For Nevada, the city-state of Las Vegas, where all of our dirty little secrets reside, is that kind of city. Roughly 75% of the state's votes are cast from Clark County alone. Cities, in statewide races such as Senate seats and the Presidency, DOMINATE Nevada politicking. Winning Vegas outright then makes Nevada a solidly Democratic state. For Republicans, they have to win the vast rural areas decisively as well as COMPETE in areas like Reno and Sparks (while .... giving it the 'ole college try' in Vegas) to gain an edge. Because of how much land is in Nevada, and how much of it does NOT have significant population centers, the Republican Party is able to compete - where in a state like New York they may be out of luck. High turnout and the state goes blue, low turnout however has traditionally made Nevada a tight state when factoring in the map layout.

 

A major event in the state politically would be the Housing Market crisis - which hit those Vegas suberbs VERY hard. President Barack Obama benefit greatly from it, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) almost had a second housing crisis too years later usurp him and hand the state completely back to Republicans in the chamber.

 

In this race, you have incumbent Senator Dean Heller (R) trying to hang on to his seat in a #Resistance kind of year against a relatively new political presence in the state known as Jacky Rosen (D). Rosen will be relying on Hispanics, as many women as possible being disgruntled with President Trump and Justice Kavanaugh's (somewhere between alleged and highly likely, depending on which of the two men we are talking about here.) treatment of women, and record turnout numbers to oust Heller, who is well liked enough to compete. An earlier challenge from the right has left the race, leaving Heller to consolidate the conservative vote and hang tough in what was/is supposed to be a good Democratic pick-up. This one is going to end close at this point in the race.

 

 

 

ARIZONA

 

Spoiler

If there is a testament to getting on the wrong side of President Trump, it's the woe-be-gone story of current Arizona junior Senator Jeff Flake, a loud #NeverTrump Republican who suddenly found himself staring at the executioner's axe his band of Arizonans had brandished in wait for this race. The story goes like this. Flake's opposition to the President meant that he was DEFINITELY going to get challenged by someone more loyal to Trump from the right, and that would absolutely ensure Arizona gets it's first Democratic Senator in years. Not only would Democrats pick up the seat, Krysten Sinema (said Democratic nominee) would be running against Flakes' challenger, who is much more conservative than palatable, and is definitely NOT Jeff Flake. Arizona is a lot like Nevada in that it has city populations that make up most of its voter percentage, but is also a lot less like Nevada in that there are more kinds of areas to get votes from. Tucson, Tempe, Phoenix, Flagstaff, Kingman, Mesa. No one city is the same. After the Republicans toppled the displaced "Dixiecrat" population, Arizona had all of a sudden become more likely to vote Republican. Part of that is because the parties switched platforms. The state has since trended toward the Democrats as suburban areas began to form around all of these population centers.

 

A key issue in the state of Arizona is Immigration - which bodes well for the NEW Republican Senate hopeful following the death of John McCain and Flake's calling it quits, Martha McSally - who did a phenomenal job of ousting Kelli Ward (the person who was going to shank Jeff Flake from the right) as well as former Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a major (and very controversial)  figure in combating illegal immigration along the state's border with Mexico. McSally may have saved the GOP in this race by consolidating her moderate and conservative voters behind her early on in the summer. In the meanwhile, Sinema has become prey to aggressive campaign ads as well as charges of being a traitor to the United States. She is caught on tape saying that it is okay for anti-war protestors to join up with the Taliban against the United States to protest the war effort. It did seem to be merely commentary and not an actual push for treason, but it didn't play very well on TV. She also has ads that have her dead to rights in openly insulting the voters she is hoping cast a ballot for her in November. This had given McSally the wind in her sails in what was, again, a major opportunity for Democrats to make gains in the Senate. This race is still not over however, because without the critical gaffes, Sinema might have a decisive lead in this race. As of now, it's McSally's advantage...within the margin of error.

 

Fun Fact: Martha McSally is a former member the United States military. When Sinema was making her comments regarding the Taliban, McSally was actually on or near the site in the Middle East.

MONTANA

 

Spoiler

 

Big Sky Country, Big Republican Politics.......mostly.

 

The state was a huge Trump state, and all of the state's offices are held by Republicans...except for two. The Governor's Mansion, and the Senate seat being defended by Democrat Jon Tester.

 

Tester's is a fascinating story. He ran a populist campaign very much like Trump ran in 2016 to unseat a multi-term Republican senator, and he has won two very tight races for his seat in very unfavorable conditions. He is an agricultural tough guy, which means he can score some points with conservative voters if he has to (and he has had to). His Republican opponent is Matt Rosendate, the state Auditor.

 

For Tester, he has to have his finger on the pulse of his state. In 2016 Montana went very widely for President Trump, and thus things like a recent "No" vote on Justice Brett Kavanaugh could do serious, serious damage in a race that as of right now is very close to the margin of error. If Republicans can take this seat from the incumbent Democrat, it makes it that much harder for Democrats to make gains in what you should know is not a great map for the party this cycle. For now though, Tester is the favorite - and that might be attributed to just the kind of candidate the man seems to be. The national perception of this being a good year for the Democrats may just salvage this seat for them.

 

MISSOURI
 

Spoiler

The Show Me State is pretty easy to tamp down as a regional voter situation. Republicans basically have no chance in St. Louis or Kansas City proper. Democrats are typically not going to find much luck in the farmer's paradise in southwestern part of the state, and the battleground regions tend to be suburban surroundings of those major cities as well as the southeast, which is very much like the rest of the South. If Democrats want to win Senate seats and Presidential elections in Missouri, they need to over-perform in the suburbs - a possibility given the favorable national climate for Democrats. Suburban people tend to have gone to college, and Trump is not as well liked by folks with diplomas.

 

This should not be cause for relaxation for Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill - who has been a pretty vocal opposing force to President Trump's nominations for the Supreme Court (and has been surprisingly #Resistant in general...considering...). While opposing Kavanaugh in the absolute dumpster fire that whole debacle was as a Democrat was normal, she also voted "No" for President Trump's FIRST SCOTUS appointment, Justice Neil Gorsuch. This means the senator has been out of step from the very beginning of Trump's presidency with her voters, who elected the President by a wide margin in 2016. She has a tough race against Attorney General Josh Hawley, but recently, AG Hawley found his use of a lobbyist's plane come under scrutiny. This one is going to be very close - and has always BEEN very close. Republicans winning this one would make a "blue wave" less threatening to the GOP's Senate majority.

 

INDIANA

 

Spoiler

 

Indiana - just calling it how it is - is one of the whitest states in the nation.

 

Unless you are in Indianapolis proper, in a college town, or as close to Chicago as you can possibly be without actually crossing into Illinois, you are going to find the prototypical Republican voter bloc everywhere. Trump was able to tamp down this state in 2016 by adding Indiana's own Mike Pence to his ticket. So, one would think this state would be a solid Republican pick-up - and while it can be - there's a little to unpack here.

 

Joe Donnelly is a Democratic Senator in this state somehow - and while it sounds like his defense of this seat should be tough, it is still very possible because of a plucky Libertarian challenger by the name of Lucy Brenton running pretty consistently at around 7 points in polling. Those points, going to Republican Mike Braun, would help Braun be the clear favorite in this race because it would put him over or right around 50%. Brenton's being a solid part of this race doesn't doom Republicans in a state they -should- pick up a seat in inherently, as the Democrat has consistently had only a very tight lead in the race. Braun however needs more independents to leave Donnelly to vote for Brenton (or himself) than independents who would have voted for himself to leave for the Libertarian.

 

The uncertainty Lucy Brenton adds to this race keeps it firmly in the "toss-up" column, because you just don't know which of the major party candidates are going to lose more key voters. If Donnelly really is where he needs to be in the exit polls, it will likely be because the base turned out well in addition to Brenton picking off his opponent as opposed to him. If Braun wins his challenge for the GOP, this again is bad news for any hopes Democrats can get Chuck Schumer the Majority Leader title.

 

FLORIDA

 

Spoiler

 

If you wanted to see me call a race, I'll call this one. Incumbent Democratic senator Bill Nelson will win a fifth term in his Florida Senate race against popular governor Rick Scott, a Republican - and while this race is going to be a barnburner, there's a couple significant reasons to believe Scott is going to get beaten back here.

 

Neither are because Nelson is a beloved figure in comparison to Gov. Scott's favorability, but they have both been around the state a good while, so it's not like Scott is a superhero. Nelson's a good senator, Scott's been a good governor.

 

Firstly, we have to talk about the Governor's Mansion. Scott's replacement is being decided between progressive African American Democrat Andrew Gillum and Republican nominee Ron DeSantis. That race has been utterly fierce and is also a toss-up, but if the turnout comes out for Gillum in the southern parts of the state, the other issue is the killer for Republicans.

 

Hurricane Michael tore through the Florida Panhandle. This area of the state is affectionately called 'the Redneck Riviera' and is a stronghold for Republican voters as an extension of the traditional South. People may be spending all of their efforts recovering from the storm instead of going to the polls, and that will hurt Republicans.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if progressives get a HUGE win in the Florida governor's race, and Scott, despite being a great presence for the state, is on the losing end of a natural disaster that may have rattled his momentum. Since you can't predict turnout issues, the race remains a "toss-up", but the dynamic here is interesting. This seat will be a critical defense for Democrats, which is not as helpful winning a Republican seat would have been.

 

 

[Chase]

I have three more Senate races I want to call attention to. These are -supposedly- more easy to call, but they do have some interesting sub-stories behind them that may lead to political upsets.

 

TEXAS

 

Spoiler

Ah, Home Sweet Home...

 

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat for statewide office in a long time, but the state is very diverse and is one of the largest urban development centers in the nation currently. There does seem to be a regional variance as well, with the areas more east and northward more Republican than the Southwestern areas of the state. The breadwinner region, is the Texas Metroplex - which is denoted by a triangle formed by US Interstate highways and connects Austin, Dallas, Ft. Worth, and San Antonio to one another. Whoever wins Central Texas' vast amounts of population, wins the state. Normally, this would result in Democratic advantages due to cities being cities...however Texas is SO big that there are many rural communities even in between these population centers, giving Republicans equal footing even here. When Republicans do well in the cities, they are bound to dominate state politics. Hillary Clinton did fairly okay in this race in 2016, only losing to President Trump by a single digit margin. The Lone Star State is a big electoral prize, and that result, along with the next statewide challenger for the party, gives Democrats hope. If Democrats nab Texas for good, it nabs America for good. There is no path to Republican victories for the White House without Texas.

 

In this race, Incumbent senator Ted Cruz is running against El Paso native congressman Beto O'Rourke. Both of those names have acclaim in the national news cycle. Ted Cruz was the Republican runner-up to Donald Trump in the primary season, and had originally withheld his support for the President at the Republican Convention before having to reverse course and endorse him. Beto has been dubbed as "Barack Obama, now in Vanilla" - and is a very likable personality who has visited all 256 counties in the state. (that's like....days of DRIVING....seriously, this state is WAY too big.)

 

Beto started the summer as strongly as many Democratic hopefuls as President Trump and the total-GOP Congress drew ire from Democrats more than it did praise from the entire nation. However, the Justice Kavanaugh hearings and Texas' traditional hard Republican lean kept Cruz in the lead. O'Rourke hasn't led in neutral polling at all in this race, but with Election Day fast approaching, the senator is leaving the door open as the polls inch closer to the margin of error. O'Rourke has made a TON of money in this race. So much in fact, that Democrats asked him to spread the wealth to other candidates when Cruz began to distance himself from him following the SCOTUS debacle. He may have done the right thing by turning the party down, as the race may be coming back around in the right time.

 

Beto winning this race would be huge for Democratic prospects. While it doesn't quite match up with the poor luck the Democrats are facing in other higher chamber races, it may be indicative of significant gains in the House of Representatives as well as just how close Democrats are to consistently turning Texas blue.

 

MICHIGAN

 

Spoiler

Michigan is typically a reliably Democratic state due to worker's unions being a huge deal in the Midwest, but Republicans have tended to fare much better in it during midterm election years.

 

President Trump winning Michigan in 2016 then, was something of a back-breaker for the Democratic hopeful in that election. Trump had won the state by breaking with Republican doctrine of encouraging free enterprise and siding with American workers in messaging. His populist message that won over enough Michiganders is going to be put to the test, as Democrats are banking on multi-term incumbent Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow to stabilize part of the "blue wall". 

 

Her challenger however,....is not your typical Republican. John James is a young African American man with military experience. His campaign didn't really get off the ground until the Justice Kavanaugh hearings, but James' unconventional political profile and clean suit have allowed him to ride the momentum in recent weeks.

 

The race seems like it is safe for Democrats...for now.  Independents and Republican turnout on Election Day could result in Trump's 2016 flag still yet waving in Michigan until 2020. The race sits just north of the margin of error for Democrats as of right now. Late deciders determine the outcome.

 

It's absolutely not good news for the Resistance if the GOP picks up this seat.

 

NEW JERSEY

 

Spoiler

Democrats have absolutely no excuse to lose an election in New Jersey. None. Zero. Period.

 

The reason for this - is that there are just not very many registered Republicans in New Jersey relative to the swathe of registered Dems. It is a very small New England state that is mostly covered with urban jungles. If you are a New Jersey Republican, you are probably very rich and there isn't a whole lot of people who have your same political opinions.

 

Bob Hugin, the challenger in this race for the GOP, is one such man, who has made a ton of money being in Big Pharmacy. This makes him not only a random Republican, but one Democrats can EASILY paint as a villain.

 

That is, if Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez wasn't a politician that routinely accepted big time bribes from lobbyists himself. The equalizer in this race is that Sen. Menendez is the most "damaged goods" incumbent on the Senate map facing off against someone with a clean political record aside from being on the wrong side of the healthcare debate.

 

This race should be won by Menendez nevertheless... the only palace intrigue is if undecided voters and moral purists break away from the senator late. If that happens, then we might see a splintered New Jersey, and a definitive Republican Senate majority.

 

[Candy]

Can't thank you enough for summarizing wtf these midterms are about. I'm not American but am studying in America and hence wanted to understand what's going on without having to go through too much reading lol

[Chase]

No problem, Candy. Glad to know this is at least somewhat educational.

 

I haven't really brought up House races yet have I? Now that Early Voting is beginning to close in most states today, I figured I try to get that and the importance of statehouse races (or Governor's races)

 

---

 

So, there are a total of 535 seats in Congress. 100 of those are Senate seats (with each state in the union getting 2 seats, equally representing both small and largely populated states in the higher chamber) and there can be no more than 435 seats in the House of Representatives (with the number of seats per state being proportional to the states' populations, making larger states more influential in the lower chamber.)

 

The majority party in the House of Representatives needs to win 218 seats in order to be the majority party. Currently, the Republicans hold onto 235 seats to the Democrats' 193.

 

What the means is that Democrats need to win about 23 more seats to become the majority party in the House when the 116th Congress meets next year.

 

---

 

Unlike the Senate, the map favors Democrats here, and all that needs to be said is where the "toss-up" "congressional districts", or the divided areas of states that are represented by one congressman that do not have an apparent Republican or Democratic advantage going into Election Day, line up with the current Congress.

 

There are 36 toss-up congressional districts. 31 of those seats are held by Republicans as opposed to merely 5 Democratic seats that are competitive. What this means is that Democrats are poised to make gains because they are largely playing offense without the risk of losing too many seats they currently hold. Putting this into perspective, if the Democrats lose those five seats they would sit at 188 (assuming they win all of their races where they have an advantage) and would only need to win 30 seats (possible mathematically) in the Republicans' toss-up tally (or upset a few Republicans) to become the majority party. If the Republicans lost all 31 of their currently held competitive seats, they would be sitting at 204 seats and would need to win 14 seats from the Democrats' toss-up count and upset some Democrats in likelier races. The Republicans don't have 14 Democratic toss-ups to win mathematically - only 5. That means that they would need to steal 9 seats from the Democrats in races they have the advantage in.

 

TL:DR? Democrats only need to win the jump-ball districts to obtain the majority. The Republicans have to fight an uphill battle in Democratic districts to retain their majority.

 

---

 

The Democrats are also in great shape to pick up some Governor's mansions, as most of them were decisively won by Republicans the last few cycles. Governors are important figures in state politics, particularly when it comes to what congressional districts look like. In a sense, Governors determine the state's electoral maps and have an outsized influence on elections. It's why things like "gerrymandering" (drawing congressional districts that lessen the impact of certain voters to the advantage of one political party over the other) is such a big problem, and its also why winning at the state level is important.

[Chase]

It Is Election Day

 

If you are registered to vote - go do so. Make sure you know where your precinct is. (it should be found on your registration card)

 

If you - for whatever reason - get turned away at the polls, make sure you try a few things.

 

• Offer to sign an affidavit confirming your eligibility.
• Ask for a provisional ballot.
• Bring any form of ID you do have on you. Even if it’s not the kind your state wants.

[Filthy Casual]

On 10/10/2018 at 10:39 PM, Chase said:

MY Predictions:

 

Democrats retake the House of Representatives

 

 Republicans look very different depending on districts that are up for grabs. Suburban Republicans are typically college educated white people who are less likely to approve of President Trump - and this will hurt Republicans who have to lean on him in those districts. The House congressional map doesn't favor Republicans in large part due to a two-year-long "Resistance"-charged enthusiasm gap and because most of their fights will be in the suburbs while losing more seats the Democrats this cycle.

 

Republicans hold onto the Senate

 

Democrats have to play defense more than they would like here. With the Kavanaugh debacle closing the enthusiasm gap by awakening the Republican base, Democrats have to hope they can win something like both Tennessee and Texas as well as hold onto all of their current seats. I don't see that happening, especially now that Heidi Heitkamp voted "No" on Kavanaugh in deep red North Dakota...when she was already down somewhere between 8 and 12 points in her race.

 

While the race for the House (at the time of this post) isn't over yet, I think it's safe to say you were spot on with your picks.