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Salem Coven Chaos - Town Win


Nano4

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@mimi @Dragoknight @Alistair @EndearingCharacterTrait @Aldo @Chickens
Since apparently this was more obvious to me, let me point out something for you:
Astra claimed to have been attacked (attacked in this context meaning that something besides the poison would have killed him if the doc didn't heal him)
It was open knowledge and one of the Big topic D2 that astra is poisoned
->Astra would be a waste for any nightkiller to target last night as he would either die to the poison anyway or be healed and as such can't be killed unless your name is pestilence (and we would know if pestilence was active)
conclusion: astra wasn't targeted for a nightkill
but Astra claimed to have roleblocked dive
A werewolf, if they stay at home on a full moon night, attack any visitor and a werewolf is forced to stay at home if they get roleblocked. and a serial Killer would attacke their roleblocker if they get roleblocked
so 3 cases exist:
1) Astra is lying about being attacked (this i find unlikely as this would put the spotlight on astra if dive doesn't flip wolf or SK)
2) Astra is saying the truth (so dive's executioner claim is fake, he is a SK or a werewolf)
3)  One of our Nightkillers has a lower attention span than 6 year old me (with ADHD) on a sugar rush (which i really don't belive)

so following that i'd say lynch dive:
if he is wolf or SK: GOOD
if he really is Executioner: Nothing lost and we could take a closer look at astra

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3 hours ago, Falirion said:

Since apparently this was more obvious to me, let me point out something for you:
Astra claimed to have been attacked (attacked in this context meaning that something besides the poison would have killed him if the doc didn't heal him)

Not necessarily lost on me. I kinda just wanted to hear something from Hypurr. You know, we can have multiple trials in a day if the trial doesn't end in an execution.

But as it seems, he has no interest in helping and we are limited in time at the moment. Your argument is quite sound, so I'll help out.

 

On 4/28/2020 at 4:15 AM, Falirion said:

i might be misreading what you said there, but the even night vision shows Townies, atleast one of them is Town, or both of them. basically i guess how it works is it RNGs 1 Townie to show as a garantied good, and then a 2nd person at random, soo it's the same chance as a RNG lynching someone from the start (without regarding any other evidence)

I'd assume that's how it works. But it's not necessarily the same chance of a random lynch. Allow me to explain. For simplicity's sake, lets take Aldo's 2nd message first.

"Nicki, Hyppur. At least one of them is good."

In this scenario, since one is guaranteed good, there are only 2 possibilities. The 2nd (in no particular order) is good or bad. Thus, there is an even 50/50 on either, but only 1, being evil. Note that the normal probability of any one of us being evil is (number of evil roles present)/15. If there are less than 8 evil roles, this is an improved chance.

 

As for Aldo's first message.

"Daniel, Falirion, Hypurr. At least one of them is evil."

Using Dive's claim, we can rule him as the one guaranteed evil. Thus, we are left with a simple scenario. If you are familiar with punnet squares, this should make sense.

There would be a .25 chance both you and Hypurr are evil, a .5 chance only one is evil, and a .25 neither of you are evil.

If we were to take the chances of either you or Hypurr individually being evil, then it would be the first scenario plus half of the 2nd, another 50/50.

 

Now, to take Hypurr's odds using both visions, we would simply use an and or probability, taking the probability of A + probability of B - probability of A and B (as it overlaps A or B). .5 + .5 - (.5 * .5) = .75

To recap, we have:

Nicki: .5

Fali: .5

Hypurr: .75

 

Thank you for coming to my statistics class.

 

[vote] Dive

 

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I can agree with hypurr not helping his case by spamming RANDOM NONSENSE
@Hypurr can you actually pls say something relevant, thx we already have bean and even he is more intelligible currently

That being said i have seen several people just take dive's claim at face value despite astra's claim, and wanted to make it evident for those that may have missed that,
and yes i am aware that multiple people can be put on trial, i just don't see the point if we have someone that is very likely a dangerous evil that tries to cover himself with a less evil role
also leaves some investigatives that we may have to be able to do their thing on well me and hypurr mainly (or well other targets at their own discretion)

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something relevant, thx we already have bean and even he is more intelligible currently

That being said i have seen several people just take dive's claim at face value despite astra's claim, and wanted to make it evident for those that may have missed that,
and yes i am aware that multiple people can be put on trial, i just don't see the point if we have someone that is very likely a dangerous evil that tries to cover himself with a less evil role
also leaves some investigatives that we may have to be able to do their thing on well me and hypurr mainly (or well other targets at their own discretion)

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12 minutes ago, Amine said:

I dont think Dive is lying and i can always investigate him, for now im more inclined to [untrial] dive and [trial] hypurr

 

so instead you are gonna vote up the obvious jester play and and take away a vote from dive when we still need 2 votes for a trial 3 hours before end of phase, where there is no way that enough people will swing over,
also you are suggesting that you are gonna investigate someone that claims a DETECTION IMMUNE role (executioner), whose likely real role (werewolf) is also detection immune, so you wouldn't be able to tell a difference if you are sheriff, and if you investigator you also can't tell the difference because werewolf and executioner also have the same investigation result
so you checking dive does fuck all

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So just as a reminder for everyone, we need 9 votes on 1 person for a trial so as it stands there will be no trial:
Number of votes on Hypurr: 5 Voters: Nicki, Daniel, Ect, Mimi, Amine
Number of votes on Daniel: 6 Voters: Astra, Lykos, GenEric, Falirion, Alistair, Drago
Number of votes on Alistair : 2 Voters: Bean, Aldo

these are the votes, so we need atleast 3 votes on dive or 4 votes on hypurr

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You know what, fine... if you want to put a trial on someone that behaves like a jester, be my guest, since A trial is better than none
[Unvote] Dive
[Trial] Hypurr


a trial atleast gives time to clear this up....
@Alistair @GenEric @LykosHand @Aldo @Chickens @Astra
can i convince some of you to follow this, since apparently the Hypurr voters are too stubborn

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49 minutes ago, Seal said:

The vampire chat hasn’t had any activity so I assume they tried converting on night one and it didn’t work because they can’t convert 2 nights in a row.

How would you know that?

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....I'm getting triggered

[Unvote] Hypurr
[Trial] Dive


@Seal Pls change to Dive and we have a trial
 

5 minutes ago, mimi said:

How would you know that?

Vampire Hunter gets to see what is said in the vampire's nightchat (with anonymous speakers)

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