Shiny Rates - Please Explain

[Valyrian_Reforged]

While I was searching for a shiny Grubbin (which I still haven't found) and a shiny Numel, I had encountered 5 shiny Poochyena and 1 shiny Meowth, but 0 shiny Grubbin and 0 shiny Numel. Can someone please explain? Are there shiny variation percentage rates between wild Pokemon and event Pokemon, and Pokemon in general? I have found most of the shiny variants of the Village cave within that cave, but not the ones that I've spent hours hunting for. Something does not add up here. Why would one Pokemon show up, more often than not shiny, more frequently than the others around it? I'm flummoxed and irritated by this.

Edited September 1, 2021 by Valyrian_Reforged

[Dreamy]

Every pokemon has the same shiny chance of 700/65535 (or slightly more than 1%). If you're hunting in a certain area, then the pokemon that more commonly appear normally are also going to be more common for you to find as shinies. i.e poochyena has a 40% encounter chance there, while numel is 15% and grubbin is only 8%. So for example if you did 10,000 encounters, the statistical average you'd expect with 1% shiny rate would look something like 

4000 poochyena encounters, 40 of them shiny 

1500 numel encounters, 15 of them shiny 

800 grubbin encounters, 8 of them shiny. 

So while they all have identical shiny chance, their regular encounter rate affects how much you'll see each overall. And even with the expected averages, it still comes down to chance so you get fluctuations, especially in a small sample, like getting a shiny for meowth, which only has 2% encounter rate in the area, before numel/grubbin.

[Valyrian_Reforged]

1 hour ago, Dreamy said:

Every pokemon has the same shiny chance of 700/65535 (or slightly more than 1%). If you're hunting in a certain area, then the pokemon that more commonly appear normally are also going to be more common for you to find as shinies. i.e poochyena has a 40% encounter chance there, while numel is 15% and grubbin is only 8%. So for example if you did 10,000 encounters, the statistical average you'd expect with 1% shiny rate would look something like 

4000 poochyena encounters, 40 of them shiny 

1500 numel encounters, 15 of them shiny 

800 grubbin encounters, 8 of them shiny. 

So while they all have identical shiny chance, their regular encounter rate affects how much you'll see each overall. And even with the expected averages, it still comes down to chance so you get fluctuations, especially in a small sample, like getting a shiny for meowth, which only has 2% encounter rate in the area, before numel/grubbin.

Alright, thanks for breaking this down for me. I will continue trying to encounter a shiny Grubbin and a shiny Numel after I have defeated Shiv, reached Redcliff Town, brought more Poke Balls and ventured back to the cave to do some more shiny hunting. :) I'm stunned to hear that I'd managed to get the lowest encounter chance 'mon, Meowth, first, but that's how the cookie crumbles, I would say. I am undeterred. I will find the shinies that I seek and I will catch them, no matter what.

*

EDIT: I encountered and caught a shiny Numel! It's Level 10, nicknamed Heatwave and it has Own Tempo. 1/2 complete. xD

Edited September 1, 2021 by Valyrian_Reforged